Yesterday, Wormhole went online and sent a tweet. The average price of Wormhole on March 4 was 1.5, and the highest historical data was 2. The current price is relatively fair. However, a little bit of fluctuation plus less than 24 hours after going online, facing the selling pressure of airdrops, I think it is normal to have price fluctuations. It is estimated that it will not be too difficult to reach 2 in the future. To be honest, but predicting the price of the currency is really thankless. If it drops by one cent, I will regret it and I am afraid of digging my ancestors' graves. If it rises by one cent, it is all because of the investment methods of netizens. So make your own decision in the future. I still stick to my proposition. All buying and selling are investments. Since it is an investment, we must always see its development. Now I will popularize the prospects of Wormhole. The password to whether it will get rich overnight is here!
Let’s start with a common vague understanding. “Isn’t Wormhole a cross-chain? Why is the TVL so high? Just short it!” Do you often see these words? This is both right and wrong. Wormhole was indeed a cross-chain in the beginning, and it also has cross-chain functions, but what is wrong is that it is different from a cross-chain. This difference is very subtle, but whether you get rich quickly or not depends on this small detail. Now let’s explain it briefly.
Since many friends do not understand technology, we will use metaphors to explain the whole process: Suppose a country called BTC suddenly appears in the world. The citizens of this BTC believe in the religion of miracles (pow). The more powerful their world is, the more valuable it is. . Okay, now someone is unhappy. I want to build a country. It seems too stupid to vigorously launch a miracle religion. You can build such a country with a dog-licking religion, so I did it and named it ETH. Who licked them? The better, the more valuable it is; slowly, there are more and more countries in this country, with BSC, SOL, NEAR, and FTM. Some of them believe in licking dogs, some believe in working hard to achieve miracles, and some believe in boxing. , there are also those who believe in the brainless wealth religion, all kinds of fancy teachings, and all kinds of "valuable coins" anyway, but from the perspective of our great investors (leeks), it is very troublesome. Today it seems that great efforts can produce miracles, but Watching dog licking and boxing is okay, but you have to use real money and silver to invest. Then the problem arises. When going to different countries, you have to use coins that they think are valuable according to different religions. You go to boxing countries? You can't use force to create miracles, but there are so many countries. If you go to a dog licking place today, you may have to go to a home where you have no idea to make a fortune. This has given rise to middlemen who help you cross the border, which is what we call "cross-chain" ", which is why we say "Wormhole is just a cross-chain"! Its role is to transport "valuable coins" or NFTs from different countries to other countries. You can imagine that you have to change your teachings during this process. Sometimes you believe that great power can produce miracles, and sometimes you believe in licking dogs. How do you do the conversion in the middle? It is this middleman that relies on it. Great netizens must have understood this logic a long time ago. Isn’t it nonsense? What does it have to do with getting rich? Hey, isn't this the problem again?
At this time, a group of people found that being a middleman was not bad, and it was a rigid demand, so a track dedicated to converting people was born. The question was, how to do it? The middlemen quarreled at this time, and they split up again. Let's talk about the results directly. They were roughly divided into three major directions (there are also some very good ones in more subdivided categories, but I won't write too much about them today):
First, Multichain; their idea is to rely on some external verification to test whether the "valuable coins" of other countries are really sufficient. Wormhole belongs to this category, but it has a weakness, that is, it is possible. It's just possible that people with evil teachings are coming in, the fact is that hackers do frequent it! Yesterday, the tweet of the founder of Wormhole was hacked. It may have been a phishing link. Of course, this#Wwas not hacked, it was just a joke!
Second, light clients; the representative is Cosmos, after all, it is a light client, and the advantage is that it is completely trustworthy, and no "valuable coins" of evil doctrines can get in, but the limitation is also obvious, that is, it can only be confined to the ecosystem. The more well-known one at present is the token ATOM (the native token of Cosmos), which Grayscale bought and held some time ago, but the price of the coin has been falling since Grayscale bought it at 14, fluctuating between 10-14, and there have been repeated reports that the community is voting to prepare to use ATOM as the token of the ecosystem (why I give this example, I am not recommending it, but the subsequent analysis involves Wormhole).
Third, liquidity network + atomic swap; the representative is Celer. Its principle is academically called changing the "hash time lock". After all, cryptography is basically various encryption and decryption of hash values, so you can understand that the achievement is a This is a way to change your beliefs. The advantage is that it is safe. The disadvantage is that there are relatively few "valuable coins" supported and the experience is insufficient.
So far, there is basically no information that is particularly beneficial to Wormhole. How can we make our great investors optimistic? It’s still in the details!
Wormhole did intend to change the faith at the beginning, but later on, there were more and more countries, and there was a lot of competition in the faith change business. And it would not be very interesting to just be a middleman, so it came up with a protocol AMB (Arbitrary-Message-Briage). How to understand it? It means that the faith change is handed over to one of its applications (Portal Bridge). In other words, cross-chain still has to be done, after all, it is the original intention and the rigid demand, but the focus of work is adjusted to communication between different countries, and it is the communication of arbitrary messages between multiple chains, that is, AMB. This is in line with the general trend, which will be discussed later. Just now we talked about Wormhole belonging to a direction of Multichain, which uses some external verification methods to prove its way of changing "valuable coins", that is, relying on everyone's recognition. Who are these trustworthy people? Some well-known companies are the guardians (such as Chorus One, Everstake, Figment, xlabs, etc., a total of 19, please pay attention to these companies, I will talk about conspiracy theories later, and you will also understand the specific investment ideas). They only observe the core contracts in the components on the Wormhole chain, and at least 13 companies need to confirm together to be valid to ensure security. This is called a verification mechanism. In fact, compared with Wormhole's verification mechanism, Axelar, which was launched a few days ago, is also a competitor in the AMB track. It uses a non-verification mechanism, that is, a decentralized verification node. It is difficult to say which one is better or worse. Technology has nothing to do with good or bad. We have to focus on investment. Since it involves competition, we have to talk about Wormhole's competitors. Now it seems that there are LayerZero, Zeta, Axelar, Celer, etc. This is the basic metaphor of the overall situation. Next, I will compare the details and specific investment ideas.
We say that the track of middlemen has actually evolved, and it is still in its infancy, that is, it is in the so-called incremental stage of capital. The last bull market started with cross-chain, so shouting about it every day is just a cross-chain. Those on the Chain Bridge can rest now, you are still searching for a sword! Corresponding to the blockchain terminology, you come into contact with: cross-chain, multi-chain, full chain, chain abstraction, and no chain feeling. This is also the development path of blockchain. Otherwise, Wormhole is in line with the general trend. This is the blockchain A path for chain development. It is not easy to understand here, so it can be compared to transnational, multinational, United Nations, a country with universal unity, a country without the concept of a country. The Wormhole transnational communication we mentioned above belongs to the stage of transition from multinational to United Nations. , then everyone vaguely thought at first, "Isn't it just a cross-chain bridge? As for the TVL being so high?" In fact, it is wrong. The TVL of the cross-chain bridge track was US$6.7 billion in January 2024, which was higher than the previous month. The peak of US$56 billion has shrunk by nearly 90%. You can imagine what the scene will be like at the peak of this bull market. Of course, competition is also fierce now, and the quota allocated to each company is critical. Now let’s compare and you decide! Among these listed coins, Zeta/LayerZero belongs to the whole chain, which can be understood as the United Kingdom. Zeta has already issued coins. It is considered as a competitor. It is not that it is not good, but it is very good. The main reason is that it is a track. It’s not the same. Zeta actually belongs to the whole chain, so it is more advanced than multinationals at this stage. Naturally, it has the skills to compete with multiple chains. Zeta has its own communication mechanism, but this is different from Wormhole. Many people are optimistic about zeta. Of course, the currency price does not look good now, which involves the thinking of how to make investments in our topic. For example, there is a cute little girl raising her arms and saying, "I am the future of each country, come and become my vassal!" Will this little cutie really become the king? If you were the big brother who worked miracles with your strength, would you agree? If you were the leader of the dog-licking leader, would you like to be called my vassal? So great investors, do you want to invest? Although he is handsome and handsome, to be honest, it is not that easy to become the king. How can you just cheer up? Or the seven-foot sword that killed the white snake?Or should I use the jade seal of longevity and longevity as collateral? They all require certain conditions, and you have to consider them if you want to invest. This is what I say. Your buying and selling are both investments. You need to be cautious, and it depends on whether the project is good or not, but this is only one factor in your investment. The next Layerzero has not issued coins yet. Many airdroppers have been doing this for many years while burning gas fees. It belongs to the second development direction of middlemen defined by us, which is the light client model. In fact, speaking of it Layerzero has its own communication mechanism and a verification mechanism similar to Wormhole, but it can be understood that the entire chain is the United Nations model, and it is on the road to the general trend. Of course, I don’t know whether it will succeed, but I am just talking about the track. Its biggest feature is that the code is not open source, which is strange in the WEB3 world, and its company has transitioned from Web2 to Web3, but from an investment perspective, this is not a problem. Compared with the reality of Android, Microsoft, and Apple, The code is not open source, and not all are outstanding, so we should look at it rationally. Here we will talk about the similarities and differences between it and wormhole. Both of them have this multi-chain communication mechanism. Understanding the achievements is one of the countries with multiple beliefs. It’s like the communication between the Kingdom of Dali and the Kingdom of Miracles. The Kingdom of Miracles has the right time, place and people. Through wormhole, it can naturally be interpreted as the concept of the upper, middle and lower swords of the Kingdom of Swordsman. This kind of communication is very important. This is an important part of the narrative of the whole blockchain chain. The whole chain is more advanced than the multi-chain when it comes to interoperability. We will not discuss it here. In short, barrier-free communication is a must. Imagine that different countries speak different languages and have to communicate with each other. That’s how we understand it! Whether the blockchain wants to develop a full chain or a chain abstraction, this will naturally happen, and multiple chains must be right. Just like the world is rich and colorful, it cannot be the same. To develop, the differences between multiple chains must be the same. Communication is a must, and interoperability is a follow-up matter. I don’t know how it will develop into, but communication is certain! The greatest capability of Wormhole is this communication. The technical term is VAA (verifiable action approval), and this communication function is now used as the communication mechanism of Pyth. Needless to say, Pyth is an upstart oracle machine. It all uses the communication of wormhole. , you can imagine if pure cross-chain does not make money in the bull market, but this communication track alone is irreplaceable. It may not exist as an independent one, but it is impossible without it, and once it is adopted, it must be provided. Opportunities to make up for the increase, after all, a rising tide lifts all boats.Finally, let me think about it, how to understand Axelar compared to Wormhole?
Having said so much, let's talk about some shortcomings and some particularly important details of development, which are the key to investment. You may ask, after all, there are full-chain ZETA and Layerzero, why do you still look at this Wormhole? This involves some shortcomings and developments. In fact, being a middleman is not smooth sailing. For example, those who believe in the dog-licking religion have a strong belief and want to exchange their "valuable coins" for other countries' coins, such as brainless fortune coins. They absolutely cannot change the characteristics of dog-licking, and they are determined to lick to the end! Either dog-licking or nothing, so basically there is no way to cross borders. How did the middlemen do it in the past? They just copied the gourd and wrapped the dog-licking coin in a bundle, and then changed the color to other "valuable coins", but they still couldn't change the dog-licking characteristics. This caused a problem. When you make this bundle, no matter how well it fits, there will be some small pieces of cloth. This is the fragmentation of the coin. Now Wormhole is a bit cunning and has come up with a solution. I won't make a bundle for you in this way. First, go to a country where you can change your faith to get a "valuable coin", and then go to a country where you can't change your faith to believe in religion. It will become a $W coin. Moreover, there are not many countries where you can't change your faith. So Wormhole's biggest investment motivation comes from this. It is a very important multi-chain native token. Like the popular governance voting, $W can realize cross-chain governance. You can imagine cross-chain exchanges and cross-chain games are all application scenarios. The fragmentation of coins can also be solved. Seamless asset transfer has now been achieved in several countries. There is another shortcoming that must be mentioned, and that is the problem of invasion of evil doctrines that we mentioned. Indeed, for verification mechanisms such as Wormhole, the more verifications are exposed, the greater the pressure from hackers. Wormhole directly lost 120,000 ETH at the beginning. How do you view this issue from an investment perspective? In fact, my personal opinion is just my personal opinion. When investing in the currency circle, you have to look at the dealer. Many people are staring at the stolen black materials but don’t follow up. You should see how they remedied it later and got the money back in the end. Who has this ability?Although the addresses in the blockchain world are decentralized, they still correspond to people in the end. This is a big proposition for cryptocurrency investment. Just like SOL lost a lot of money after FTX went bankrupt, you can only say this when you look at the current price of the currency - it's up to the dealer! And the validator nodes mentioned just now, do you think the validator nodes are good or bad? There is no right or wrong in technology, unless you have disruptive technology. If you want to invest in this track, who should you bet on? Just like the narrative of the whole chain has come out, why do you still think that cross-chain and multi-chain are more likely to have a better time than it? This is like the 19 guardian nodes mentioned just now. If a company involves such a wide range of aspects, it means that everyone's interests are gathered here, and it is clear who is the dealer. The same is true for investors. Among Wormhole's investors, there is coinbase, and the Axelar we mentioned is binancelab. If it comes to a state of cross-chain war, in fact, these are all driven by the funds behind them, and it is also a stage of winning people over with the rise. How do great investors choose?
In the end, I wrote so much just to express my views on the project. It is very neutral and also contains some ideas for speculation. Originally, I didn’t want to write more about this kind of project. I posted a post just because it was newly launched yesterday. It’s really hard to negotiate the price. Please, if you write more in the future, just write about some Alpha projects. After all, the bull market is easy, and it is easy to get hundreds of times the coins. Once you send it out, it will be like a god. Great investors and gentlemen also like to read it!
The above is for reference only. It can be summed up in seven words: it does not constitute investment advice!
