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$FIL

Yumo would like to talk to everyone about Filecoin. In this round of market, its performance can only be said to be unsatisfactory. Not only did it fail to outperform the broader market, but even its fellow sufferer’s ICP range was twice as large as its own, and its price was twice as high.

Judging from the data, although the fundamentals of FIL are still improving, the changes are still not big enough to reverse the fundamentals. The burden of CC sectors is still there, and the storage capacity of the entire network is still declining rapidly; there are no eye-catching projects in the FVM ecosystem; and the retrieval function has not yet been implemented.

Not long after FIL went online, it was included in the holdings of Grayscale Fund and purchased. On March 15, 2021, Grayscale Fund established the FIL trust product, and made its first purchase at around $80 on March 17. In the following two years, Grayscale spent a total of $10.27 million on 34 FIL purchases, buying a total of about 110,000 FILs, with the highest purchase price of $170 and the lowest purchase price of $19, costing about $90.

With the arrival of the bear market and the collapse of FIL, Grayscale Fund stopped buying it throughout 2023, and FIL fell to a minimum of $2.3, a 99% drop from the high. Grayscale Fund looked at the cost of 90 US dollars, and then looked at the lowest price of less than 3 US dollars, and probably cursed it in his heart ten thousand times.

Just when FIL investors looked at the soaring BTC and the skyrocketing meme, and then looked at FIL lying motionless on the floor, they were secretly depressed. Grayscale Fund takes action again:

On March 23, 2024, 113,500 shares were purchased at a cost of $7.8, with an investment of $885,300;

In the early morning of March 26, 2024, another 55,700 FILs were added, at a cost of $9.3, with an investment of $518,010;

On March 27, 2024, 2,670 FILs were added at a cost of $9.53, with an investment of $25,445;

On March 28, 2024, 6,840 coins were purchased at a cost of $9.13, with an investment of $62,450;

On March 29, 2024, 351,900 coins were purchased at a cost of US$9.3 and an investment of US$3,271,837.

The increase in holdings this time was relatively rapid. From 2021 to 2022, the holdings were increased a total of 34 times, and only about 110,000 units were purchased; and this time, more than 500,000 units were purchased in only 5 times, and they have been purchased every day in the past few days. On March 29, more than 350,000 units were purchased at one time.

Why did Grayscale Fund start buying FIL "large amounts" again after more than a year? When professional institutions invest, they are more willing to do "right-side trading" in the bottom range, that is, they will enter the market only after they are sure that the trend has started. Therefore, what they buy is not the "lowest point" but "certainty", perhaps in the gray area. It seems that FIL is currently in the bottom range. Although the fundamentals have not improved significantly, they will not get worse. The certainty of a positive future has increased, so they have begun to continuously absorb chips.

The burden of the CC sector began to ease in the middle of the year. As for the progress of the virtual machine ecosystem and search functions, although it is difficult for us ordinary users to know the details, perhaps Grayscale Fund believes that the ecosystem is on the eve of its launch after research.

For the trust product Grayscale Fund FIL, it is also quite magical, because its premium has always been the highest. The recent premium is more than 30 times, and the net assets per share are only about 9 US dollars, but the secondary market transactions are as high as about 250 US dollars.

Explain the premium or discount of Grayscale Fund products: Grayscale Fund's trust products cannot be redeemed, that is, after buying FIL trust products, you cannot get back FIL when you want to exit, and you need to sell the corresponding stock shares of FIL. When there is uncertainty in the market or pessimistic expectations, there will be a discount. For example, at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, the discount of Bitcoin and Ethereum even reached 50%; if the market improves or the expectations for the future are good, there will be a premium.

Of course, another reason why FIL’s premium is so high is that its share in the Grayscale Fund is very small and its liquidity is very poor, which causes the premium in the secondary market to be somewhat outrageous.

No matter what, the market has picked up, and even the public has seen an astonishing increase. FIL, which has technology, ecology, and investment from Wall Street capital, will always have a time to perform.



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