Nineteen days to go until bitcoin's half-life - how has BTC behaved in previous cycles?
With 19 days to go until bitcoin's four-year half-life, the market remains unchanged.
This event, which reduces the issuance of new bitcoins from 6.25 #BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, has historically been characterized by unprecedented bullish momentum since the end of the year.
However, traders seem unsure of what the next cut will bring, as BTC is up just 2.6% over the past 14 days. Still, according to CoinGecko, #bitcoin has maintained most of its gains after soaring to all-time highs since the spot #ETF launched in January.
On April 22, 2020, 19 days before bitcoin was last halved, BTC was trading at $6,842 and the market was trading in a mid-range after trading between $6,420 and $7,340 during April 2020.
Bitcoin rose 44% in 17 days to reach a local high of $9,822 on May 9, and opportunistic selling pushed the price back to $8,752 by the third half-life on May 11, 2020. BTC fell to US$8,600 the next day and has never traded lower since.
However, the bullish momentum associated with the third half price reversal occurred in a very different macroeconomic climate. Cryptocurrencies had experienced a sharp decline along with the major markets just a month earlier, when a state of emergency and travel ban was declared in the U. S. in March 2020 due to the Covid 19 pandemic.
On March 17, 2020, bitcoin fell to an 11-month low of $5,030, marking a 51% pullback in less than five weeks. This drop made bitcoin ripe for a rebound before the previous double-digit drop: after seven months, BTC reached an all-time high, in contrast to the five months of bullish momentum before bitcoin's next double-digit drop, which saw it reach an all-time high.
On June 20, 2016, 19 days before the second halving, the market began to retreat from its pre-halving peak.
BTC/USD price dynamics in 2016. Source: CoinGecko.
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