2024.4.1 Coin Circle Information

Since the U.S. stock market was closed last Friday, the ETF was not open and the data was not available.

Lao Bao's speech last Friday mentioned that "despite the strong economic performance, the Fed will wait and see before considering cutting interest rates. There is no need to rush to make a decision, and it will consider it carefully. You cannot overreact just because of the data of a certain month. The risk is premature in both directions." "Interest rate cuts may cause major disruptions." Therefore, the probability of an interest rate cut given by the market in May is still very low, and we still place our bets on June or even beyond.

Data on the chain shows that the address marked as Tether purchased another 8,888 Bitcoins at 1:21 a.m. on April 1, with a transaction amount of approximately US$630 million. The address’s total holdings have now reached 75,354.08 Bitcoins, which is approximately $5.34 billion based on current market capitalization. It is worth noting that Tether also purchased 8,888 Bitcoins three months ago, with the transaction value at that time being $380 million. Others are beliefs and emotions, but when it comes to buying tether, I think there is still a certain direction. His move must indicate something, or at least it means that buying at this position should not be the top in the long run.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said in an interview that people should be cautious before labeling all Memecoins as "stupid" and that they can be a net positive for the blockchain network in which they are located. You can view these things as silly and worthless, but if they bring attention and more engineers to join the field, that is a positive value for the blockchain itself. Chains that can support this culture will capture the value within it. I quite agree with his point of view. We have said before that we must face up to MEME, especially MEME that has a large trading volume and open positions. Decentralization requires MEME, a bull market requires MEME, and MEME is also likely to become this bull market. A main track.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s current cyclical price has reached the level of April 2021, and is very similar to the price trend of the previous bull market. Just go back and see how it goes in April 2021.

Market interpretation

The monthly line of the pie has come to a new start. The sudden drop this afternoon is relatively bad for small levels, but I think this may also be to repair the acceleration of the monthly K. After all, the monthly K has been positive for 7 consecutive years. , it is quite necessary to repair it. For the entire month of April, especially since the halving is only 20 days away, the probability of another relatively large adjustment is relatively high, and this month’s monthly line will finally close The probability of being negative is also relatively high, that is, the price on April 30 will not exceed 71,280.

In the short term, 65000-66000 is still the short-term support level. Although from a cyclical and structural perspective, there is a possibility of a top structure at this position, I don't think it will fall much. And the cycle after the interest rate cut has not yet begun.

I heard that Erbiao’s ETF is expected to be moved to December? Then just keep waiting. Anyway, the Doomsday Chariot happened again today. It’s really just a matter of making up for the increase.

SOL has been strong all weekend. Regardless of the cycle, I am quite firm that SOL can reach a new all-time high this time.

Today’s panic and greed index: 79 (greed)

I will arrange low-end copycats and ambush high-explosion hot coins in a small circle every day, and share daily market analysis #SHIB #WIF #Meme $BTC $ETH