Twitter is full of research reports about $ena. I refuse to mass-produce them in a templated manner. I will wait for you to finish writing before I write one.
This article discusses it in two ways:
1. What is the narrative vision of the Ethena protocol?
2. Why $ENA is priced based on PE valuation.
Combined with the fact that my previous issues of $ALT and $ETHFI have doubled in volume, this article has received 200 likes and reposts, which is not too much.
Because I made a new trade on Binance in the early stage, the winning rate was very high. Many fans and KOLs have sent private messages asking me what my opening strategy will be this time. I don’t want to be prostituted for nothing, but I can’t bear to reject a beautiful sister. Before answering, I checked some information and found a small bug. I will report it here to @heyibinance @sisibinance @binancezh.
Binance’s Chinese research only includes token allocation and token release, while the English research includes token operating principles and roadmap.
This explains why the questions asked to me are all so strange. This bug is nothing serious, but it does affect the investment research level in the Chinese area. After all, these research reports are based on objective Chinese research.
It's quite fun.
1. What is the narrative vision of the Ethena protocol?
First, let’s review the key points of those templated research reports. You can find the details everywhere.
1. Investment institutions are extremely powerful.
Organizations: Dragonfly, Franklin Templeton, PayPal (very rare)
Exchanges: Binance, OK, BYBIT, @HTX_DAO (amount) Deribit
City Commercial: Wintermute
Individuals: Xiaohei and bitmex.
2. Features and safety.
Crypto assets and corresponding short futures positions are used as collateral to form synthetic dollars, rejecting the risk of serial declines.
3. Chip distribution.
The opening circulation is less than 10%, which is easy to control.
The above is the focus of the research reports that are flooding Twitter.
I always remember an article by Guru, the founder of Bihu, which said that native stablecoins are the holy grail of blockchain. As Polkadot is at its peak, more projects are beginning to explore the impossible triangle of stablecoins, and many teams are lurking in the later stages to explore stablecoins, because mastering the minting rights of stablecoins is equivalent to mastering the native assets of the DeFi world, and there is no shortage of such currencies in every bull market, such as Luna.
Multicoin’s wheel in the impossible triangle of stablecoins:
Price Stability – Unlike BTC, a token that is effectively considered a cash equivalent needs to have stable purchasing power.
Capital efficiency - Having to lock up more than $1 in collateral to create $1 of stablecoin is inefficient and will lead to stablecoin supply constraints.
Decentralization – i.e. the collateral is not held by a single entity, as is the case with Tether and the Central Alliance.
Take the currently surviving stablecoins as an example:
1. The problem with USDC and USDT is that they are centralized.
2. In order to scale DAI, MakerDAO was forced to sacrifice decentralization and decouple a lot.
3. There are too many algorithmic stablecoins. If you have no mortgage, you can only rely on algorithms. Until now, no algorithm is perfect. The biggest problem with algorithmic stablecoins is that no one believes in your algorithm.
4. There is a problem with luna’s collateral and it is a death spiral.
Ethena leverages crypto-native synthetic USD on Ethereum, on-chain custody and centralized liquidity venues.
Its stability lies in the fact that the pledged ETH collateral can be perfectly hedged by an equivalent notional short position, so only a 1:1 "collateral" is required to synthesize the US dollar. Ethena maintains the stability of the US dollar with Delta-Neutral Stability.
For example: If Ethena hedges 1 ETH worth of delta by shorting a perpetual contract with a nominal position size equal to 1 ETH, then Ethena will naturally receive a positive delta of 1 ETH from the user depositing 1 ETH as collateral. , the Delta of Ethena's portfolio is 0.
Its capital efficiency lies in the fact that Delta-neutral synthetic dollars hold collateral outside the banking system and concentrate that liquidity in native liquidity venues. (cefi, derivatives)
It’s censorship-resistant: all collateral backing USDe is always retained by an “over-the-counter” institutional-grade provider. Collateral will not be deposited on any exchange at any time, ensuring that the protocol’s collateral is never affected by an exchange failure.
2. Why ENA is priced using PE valuation.
There are many people asking me for my valuation of ENA, but very few are actually valuable.
Many "KOL" prices for $ENA are between 0.6-0.7. I read that everyone agrees with me, I feel, so what is your basis?
I think there are only three types:
1. Analogous valuation. Make an excel comparison with those in the same track. Are you trying to compare the market value of those that look similar? I ask you how you can compare valuations without even carefully segmenting the track. This person sitting on the watch is still thinking.
2. The AEVO futures price is 0.66, which is the source of most KOL pricing.
3. If you really calculate the rate of return of launchpool, you will find that it is not necessarily 0.6-0.7.
Among them, @joakja's question is more valuable, and he has gone through his own calculations and thinking. It is very complicated to discuss the basis for calculating $ENA. Answering this question can trigger traders to think about its pricing. Of course, the prostitutes are always waiting to be fed, so there is no use.
The institution raised 20.5 million knives, accounting for 25%, and 150E tokens. The institutional price of ENA is 0.005467.
Why is aevo’s pricing 0.6-0.7?
Not many people think about this question. I thought of the article on the valuation of $SNX by @lanhubiji in the 2020 Blue Fox Notes. I will give you an answer based on the wisdom of others.
Ethena is valued using PE based on its protocol revenue.
The sources of income for the Ethena protocol are: fee income, lending income, and liquidity pledge derivative income.
As mentioned earlier, you mortgage the aunt and then short the aunt futures, resulting in a stable 1:1, but there is a difference between the futures and the current price, and there is an interest rate.
The historical rates of short selling are all positive curves.
aevo's pricing is based on the valuation basis based on income. This is one point. The second basis is that although the institution's cost is extremely low, the lock-up time is very long. The current protocol income is confirmed by the tokens in circulation.
Therefore, even at the current PE valuation, futures are not priced high.
Because there are too many prostitutes for free, there is no price for this period, but what I said is very clear, and you will know after a little calculation. Do it yourself, and you will have enough food and clothing. There are still many in-depth thoughts, which I will discuss behind closed doors in the trader community and refuse to engage in free prostitution.
Participating in the current Binance lauchpool is still very profitable:
