After Binance announced on the 29th that Ethena (ENA) would be listed on Binance as a new currency mining project, MakerDAO subsequently stated that it would deploy $100 million in DAI through Morpho Blue and distribute it to the sUSDe/DAI and USDe/DAI markets.

MakerDAO founder Rune also mint 5.66 million USDT into USDe through his personal address yesterday (30th). (figure 1)

So, what is Ethena? What is USDe again?

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published an article titled "Dust on Crust" in March 2023, which envisaged the creation of a synthetic U.S. dollar stablecoin through a combination of cryptocurrency and equal futures short perpetual contract position hedging. form. He ended the article by saying he wanted to support a reliable team to turn the idea into a reality, and Ethena was born.

Ethena is a synthetic dollars protocol built on Ethereum, with ETH as the underlying asset. USDe is based on equal amounts of spot ETH and futures ETH short mortgages. The two are hedged to become a delta-neutral stable asset. , Delta neutrality means that USDe's mortgage casting position is basically not affected by ETH price changes, thereby ensuring the reliability of the asset and the stability of USDe.

Ethena, inspired by Arthur Hayes, has also been favored by top institutions: it has received US$14 million in financing from Dragonfly, Binance Labs, GSR, Wintermute, etc., with a project valuation of US$300 million. (figure 2)

Ethena’s operating logic (Figure 3)

◎Assuming that the user deposits $100 of stETH, after deducting execution costs such as hedging, approximately $100 of USDe will be minted;

◎Ethena will automatically open an equivalent ETH U-based (USDT or USD) perpetual contract short position on CEX;

◎The stETH deposited by users will not be deposited into CEX, but will be transferred to custodians such as Copper, CEFFU, and Cobo to reduce possible risks (asset misappropriation, CEX thunderstorms, etc.).

This creates two sustainable revenue streams and rewards for staked USDe (sUSDe):

◎Ethereum’s pledged PoS income (~3.2% APR);

◎Funding rates and basis spreads (5~30% APR) from delta hedging derivatives positions.

Both of these returns are sustainable and real. The return from staking PoS is relatively fixed, ensuring a basic stable return.The capital rate income of the hedging position will fluctuate greatly: in the bull market, the long-term funding rate is positive, and the hedging position will obtain higher funding rate income; in the bear market, the funding rate decreases or becomes negative, and the income will decrease.

ENA Price Forecast

The total amount of ENA is 15 billion, with an initial circulation of 1.425 billion (9.5%).

There are currently multiple valuation models for ENA price predictions on the market, such as:

Refer to the transaction price of over-the-counter platforms (such as aevo, etc.): $0.65;

According to the average yield of previous Binance mining projects (annualized 123%): $0.45.

If the valuation is based on PE, the price will be higher. Because based on Ethena’s recent revenue, Ethena’s annual revenue will reach $330 million. (Figure 4)

Which price or prediction model do you think is more reasonable?

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