Bitcoin’s monthly chart ends, what’s the next trend?
The currency circle was relatively calm over the weekend, and the market was calm. We will not delve into today's data for the time being, leaving it for a comprehensive analysis next Monday. Today, a fan mentioned that Bitcoin is about to usher in its monthly close. The current price is high and has jumped out of the Bollinger Band track. Does this indicate that there will be a sharp correction in the upcoming April?
I have mentioned many times recently that the monthly trend of Bitcoin has broken through the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. In the short term, the price is no longer constrained by the Bollinger Bands. Instead, the monthly Bollinger Bands upper track has become its important support.
From a professional perspective, the Bollinger Bands indicator is based on the midline, forming an equal amplitude above and below to construct a price shock range. When the price moves away from the midline, it is easy to trigger an overbought or oversold signal. Bitcoin is currently breaking through the monthly Bollinger Band, and it is indeed facing greater upward pressure on the technical side.
However, technical aspects are only part of the analysis, and we cannot rely solely on technical signals to judge market trends. Market sentiment, macroeconomic environment, trader psychology and other factors are equally important.
Although Bitcoin is currently out of the Bollinger Bands and technical indicators show increasing upward pressure, market sentiment remains stable and market expectations have not changed significantly. Coupled with the expectation of Bitcoin production cuts, there will still be upward momentum in the future.
It is worth noting that the upper track of the monthly Bollinger Band has become an important support for Bitcoin after it derailed. As long as Bitcoin price can hold this support level at the close of the month, we can remain confident. Currently, Bitcoin's weekly Bollinger Band upper track is located near 59,000, and as the monthly line closes, this support level will move upward. This forms an effective support for Bitcoin prices and also helps buffer possible future corrections.
On the eve of the Bitcoin halving, we did not observe obvious negative factors, and the technical aspects did not issue warning signals. Therefore, we don’t need to panic too much before the halving. Of course, the occurrence of small-probability events cannot be ruled out.
As for the trend after the halving, the market has historically had expectations of a correction. However, this pullback may not happen immediately, as expectations of a mid-year interest rate cut may become an important factor affecting the pace of the market.Once the time for interest rate cuts is clear, the pace of the market correction may be affected.
As an analyst, although I can make analyzes based on historical data and market trends, I cannot accurately predict the future. The market is ever-changing. As for the trend after the halving, we can only wait for the halving event to take place and conduct in-depth analysis based on market data.
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