"Regarding new currencies, they are telling you words like Internet bonds and synthetic US dollars, but do you really know what these are? #ENA "
This article mainly talks about two aspects:
Ethena’s model (analyzing the so-called synthetic dollar)
Calculate the cost of the organization and the estimated price of the launch
1.Business model and principles
Ethena's flagship product is a stablecoin designed throughout - USDe, the so-called synthetic dollar.
Traditional mortgage/algorithmic stablecoins will bring liquidation risks as the value of mortgage assets decreases, thus triggering a decoupling crisis. For example, if I want to mortgage $ETH in exchange for USDT, if the value of ETH falls in the future, it will reach the liquidation line. , but it is not yet decoupled.
The real decoupling is when there are only two assets anchored, and the value of one of the assets plummets. At this time, the value anchoring of the stablecoin is unbalanced, so decoupling occurs.
(Note 1: This is why the design of stablecoins anchored by volatile assets often adopts an over-collateralization approach, in order to resist the risk of large-volume liquidation in certain extreme environments)
(Note 2: The issuance of USDT is anchored 1:1 with the actual US dollar and is not included in the category of volatile assets)
But the core of Ethena's synthetic assets is that when the user starts to mortgage, a short order will be set for the position simultaneously. If you have opened a hedging order in your usual trading, it will be very easy to understand this principle:
(1) Assuming that the value of the collateral asset increases in the future, the short order will suffer a loss, and the increase in spot value will offset the loss;
(2) Similarly, if the value drops, you will make a profit from short selling, which hedges the liquidation risk caused by the drop in the value of Ethena's mortgage assets.
This is a more stable design than previous stable cases. If Luna had such a design, maybe that thunder would not have happened🔺
📍So, the meaning of this synthetic dollar is: user’s mortgaged assets + short order = USDe.
In Ethena's design, the mortgage assets are designed into LSD interest-bearing assets, such as stETH.
This is actually a way of playing LSDFi. By using LSD assets as collateral in exchange for USDe, an additional level of Fi income can be achieved.
But why is it said that Ethna has the property of re-pledge? Because USDe, a stable currency, can also be pledged to generate income!
In other words, the original LRT route is: ETH → LSD assets (stETH) → LRT
In Ethena's route, it is: ETH → LSD assets (stETH) → (stETH + short order = USDe) → sUSDe. On the contrary, when the user withdraws the LSD asset, the short order will be closed.
In fact, the core of re-pledge lies in security sharing, and Ethena's design is more biased towards LSDFI, that is, using LSD interest-earning assets to generate excessive protocol income.
Even to a certain extent, Ethena’s logic is somewhat similar to the previous issue of New Coin $ETHFI
2. Institutional costs and opening estimates
Let’s first look at its token distribution. The team can control a larger part. The airdrop part has not been further disclosed in detail, but it is most likely divided into the [ecosystem] part.
Let’s calculate the institutional costs:
(1) The last round of financing raised US$14 million at a valuation of US$300 million, and the total number of tokens was 15 billion, which means that the cost of a single coin is US$0.02 (3÷150=0.02), and raising 14 million means that the project Fang sold about 4.7% of his share in this round (1400÷30000≈4.7%)
(2) Through the token economy, we can see that investment institutions account for 25%. If there are only two rounds of public information, the second round accounts for 4.7%, and the first seed round accounts for 21.3%, which was obtained with US$6.5 million. 21.3% share, which means that the valuation of this round is based on 30 million (650÷21.3%≈3000), while the cost of the seed round is even lower, about US$0.002 per coin (15 billion × 21.3% =3.195 billion=319,500,650÷319,500≈0.002)
Therefore, in summary: the cost of the first round of financing institutions is US$0.002/coin, and the cost of the second round is US$0.02/coin. Although it sounds exaggerated, the early stage also means risks, and there is a linear release design. There are not many institutions that can outperform the cycle in the transition stage from level one to level two. Don’t be biased by survivors~
Some friends also calculate the average, but this is actually meaningless. No matter which round, the average cost of the institution should not be used as a reference. The proportions are different and the costs are even more different.
Next, we calculate the estimated listing price:
The initial circulation market value of the past few Binance new coins has been in the range of 300 million to 500 million. This time, the circulation share of the new currency is about 1.4 billion (a total of 150), so use the benchmark of 300 million to 500 million as a reference:
The price of a market value of 300 million is around US$0.21, and the price of a market value of 500 million is around US$0.36, so 0.21-0.36 is a conservative opening range.
Many friends use OTC as a reference, but I think that due to OTC liquidity, the reference value is not very high. Some even say 1 US dollar, which is not impossible, but compared with history, it is impossible to say so.
The above is my analysis of new coins. I hope it can be helpful to you~
