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This week in review
This week from March 18 to March 25, Bingtang Orange’s highest was around $68,956 and its lowest was close to $60,775, with a fluctuation range of about 11.86%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 66,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
54000-58000: about 400,000 pieces;
59000-63000 about 700,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 54000~57000 in the short term is 82%;
Among them, the probability that it will not rise above 68,000 to 71,000 in the short term is 53%.
Important news
economic news
Federal Reserve's March Interest Rate Resolution: The statement unanimously agreed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot maintained expectations of three interest rate cuts this year.
Powell said: "Falling inflation could prompt a rate cut, and if there is significant labor market weakness, that would be a reason to initiate a rate cut.
Since the beginning of this year, the S&P 500 Index has hit 20 record highs. On March 21, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher and continued to hit record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.68%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.2%.
Market strategists such as Societe Generale's Manish Kabra said there is still room for further expansion of the rally in U.S. stocks amid optimistic corporate earnings prospects.
Bank of America cited EPFR data showing that in the latest week, cash outflows totaled US$61.2 billion, the largest outflow since October 2023, and gold inflows reached US$1.1 billion, the largest inflow since May 2023.
Encrypted ecological news
Coinbase chief legal officer paulgrewal.eth said that while waiting for a decision on ETH ETP, another ETH error message appeared. ETH is a commodity, not a security, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has no sufficient reason to reject the ETHETP application.
The cumulative trading volume of U.S. spot BTC ETF funds exceeds $150 billion, less than 10 weeks after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved ETFs from companies such as BlackRock, Fidelity and Bitwise.
According to coingecko data, the total market value of stablecoins exceeded US$150 billion, and the total market value of USDT reached US$104.1999 billion, an increase of 6.5% in the past week.
Spot BTC ETF experienced net outflows for the fourth consecutive day. On March 21, there was a net outflow of US$94 million, of which Grayscale had an outflow of US$358 million and BlackRock IBIT had an inflow of US$233 million. Grayscale’s pressure continues unabated, GBTC has dropped from 620,000 BTC to 350,000 BTC, a drop of nearly 45%
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently at, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions
long term insights
US Crypto ETF Net Position
High quality selling pressure
Selling at Profit and Loss
Total spot selling pressure
Short term speculator market sentiment
(Chart below: US crypto ETF net position)
The currently popular ETF has always been one of the main forces in the market and plays a decisive role in influencing the market to a certain extent.
In terms of general market performance, they have more positive correlation with the market.
But when the final market faces the impact of huge profits, the purchasing power of ETFs will be slightly insufficient.
To a certain extent, more new ETFs are a bit similar to hot money.
When the market falls, outflows will follow, similar to a market booster.
(The picture below shows high-quality selling pressure)
High-quality selling pressure is at its highest level in four years.
The last time it faced such high selling pressure was probably at the stage top around February 2021.
Generally, this means that the market is halfway through the process and entering the mid-to-late stage.
(Picture below profit and loss selling)
Around 70,000 to 73,000, there are a lot of huge profit selling.
This profit selling pressure is equivalent to the overall selling pressure throughout roughly April of 2021.
The rhythm of the market is somewhat similar to that of 2021.
(Figure below shows total spot selling pressure)
The total selling pressure on spot prices has reached almost a relative high in the past eight years.
In view of the fact that the spot selling pressure in the first few cycles has declined in a certain pattern, a new green arrow is made here to point to an approximate decay rate.
The high point of this bull market may touch this decay rate or above.
(The chart below shows the market sentiment of short-term speculators)
From the perspective of the entire cycle, the market's short-term speculative atmosphere is close to white-hot. From the perspective of the entire cycle, there are only two times when bulls and bears can reach the level of green excitement.
This proves that the market has now reached a very feverish state.
Overall needs to be treated with more care.
mid-term exploration
Realized volatility composition
incremental structure
Activity comparison of ETH and BTC
Accumulated trend points
(The picture below has realized the fluctuation composition)
This model refines the holding structure in the market, compares the short-term and long-term holding ratios, and shows the significant characteristics (blue area), thereby exploring the structure of the positive driving force of the data on the market.
Red line: Freshman participant holding changes from 1 day to 1 week
Blue line: Long-term participant holding changes from 1 to 2 years
At present, there are signs of slight suspension of holdings by new players, while long-term players are generally creating greater selling pressure in the market.
Of course, as the judgment characteristics of the blue area have shown that short-term participants have previously completed the role of market promotion.
During the current market pause, short-term players may suffer from a lack of broad momentum, causing holding growth among this group to pause.
(Increment structure in the figure below)
The increase in the market still maintains an upward rhythm, and the logic of increase still exists.
Zoom in to see the details of the fluctuations and observe the overall situation.
(The picture below compares the activity of ETH and BTC)
The active proportion of ETH has slightly slowed down.
Judging from previous situations, when the proportion of ETH increases, the fluctuations in the market will amplify and rise.
It is possible that when the direction of the resultant force is not formed in the market, the pressure in the market will be transferred from ETH to BTC, causing the market to become stagnant.
(The picture below shows accumulated trend points)
BTC has shown a synergistic effect. However, as the volatility gradually slows down, the market may gradually shift more funds towards BTC.
During this process, fluctuations may still continue, and the pace and rhythm of risk control will still need to be maintained.
short term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer amount
Add new addresses and active addresses
Bingtang Orange Exchange Net Position
Auntie exchange net position
High weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is on the edge of the danger zone, and the risk of derivatives increases.
(The figure below shows the risk coefficient of derivatives)
The market is still in a volatile correction. This week, the risk coefficient hit the neutral zone and then turned downward, driving a small rebound in prices. Judging from the derivatives liquidation volume and risk coefficient, the market is expected to undergo a shock adjustment or a small amount of short squeeze this week.
(The picture below shows the option transaction ratio)
The bearish protection ratio levels remain elevated. Options trading volume fell slightly.
(The figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
As prices have fallen, derivatives trading volumes have continued to fall, and current trading volumes are already at low levels, indicating that another change is imminent.
(The chart below shows option implied volatility)
Implied volatility fell slightly in the short term and was basically unchanged from last week.
Mood state rating: Neutral
(The figure below shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
As the market corrected, market sentiment also returned to neutral. The short-term holder cost has begun to slow down, and the current short-term holder cost is about 55K. Viewed separately, panic has not continued to increase, but has remained at a relatively low level. Currently, both positive sentiment and panic sentiment in the city have reached relatively low levels.
(The picture below shows the new address and active address)
New and active addresses are at mid-range levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: The selling pressure on BTC and ETH is divided, and the overall selling pressure is low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The big pie is currently in a state of accumulation of massive outflows, and the net position in the exchange continues to decline.
(The figure below shows the net position of the E-Pacific Exchange)
There has been a large inflow of Erbing this week, and the inflow of chips has not yet been fully digested.
(The picture below shows high weight selling pressure)
High-weighted selling pressure has now eased.
Purchasing Power Rating: Compared with the slight increase in global purchasing power last week, the purchasing power of stablecoins has declined slightly.
(Figure below shows the status of global purchasing power)
Although the overall global purchasing power has declined significantly, compared with last week, the level of global purchasing power has increased slightly this week, and the purchasing power has not continued to be lost, indicating that there are still funds that favor the current price.
(Figure below: USDT exchange net position)
The overall net position of USDT exchanges decreased slightly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 62,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(Coinbase off-chain data in the picture below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 58,000, 60,000, and 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 68,000, 70,000, 72,000, and 73,000.
(Figure below: Binance off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 58,000, 60,000, and 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 68,000, 70,000, 72,000, and 73,000.
(Picture below: Bitfinex off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 58,000, 60,000, and 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 68,000, 70,000, and 74,000.
This week’s summary:
News summary:
The process of U.S. stock market interest rate cuts is a process of reallocation of funds.
In the future, the over 6 trillion U.S. dollar monetary funds in the United States will gradually withdraw from the liquid market and turn their attention to more capital markets, emerging markets, crypto markets, gold, etc.
There may be a big water release in the next two years or even longer, which will inject more liquidity into the capital market and risk market and create more structural opportunities.
Maybe crypto will peak sooner or slower in the future, but there may also be more structural opportunities due to the injection of liquidity.
The Fed is releasing money. This narrative will be the theme of the next two years.
April is the month of the crypto halving. During the period before and after the halving, it is expected that the hype will be completed in advance, and the market will be relatively sluggish during the time when the expectation is fulfilled.
Usually after halving, judging from historical experience, it continues to be bullish.
Long-term insights on the chain:
To some extent, U.S. ETFs are similar to hot money and may be similar to market boosters. To another extent, they will also have some reminders of excess returns, but not much;
High-quality selling pressure reached its highest point this year and reached its highest point in four years, similar to the staged top in February 2021;
A very large profit amount was sold above 70,000 this time, which is equivalent to the amount in March or April 2021;
The total spot selling pressure has also reached an eight-year high, with a green arrow marking the decay rate;
The short-term sentiment of the market has entered a white-hot stage. Judging from the multiple popular cycles in history, there have been only two bull markets in the past that have touched the green stage and surpassed the current white-hot stage.
Market setting the tone:
As market sentiment reaches a fever pitch, caution can gradually increase.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
New players have paused growth, while long-term players are still releasing widespread selling pressure;
The overall increase is still growing;
The proportion of ETH is slowing down and rising, and the fluctuations may gradually converge and slow down;
BTC has formed a synergistic effect, and the volatility may gradually lessen.
Market setting the tone:
Accumulate, shock
There are still fluctuations in the market, and it may be in the stage of accumulating strength. It is still necessary to guard against fluctuations and control risks at any time.
Short-term observations on the chain:
The risk coefficient is at the edge of the danger zone, and the risk of dangerous goods increases.
The number of new active addresses is relatively at the mid-range level.
Market Sentiment State Rating: Neutral.
The exchange's net positions of BTC and ETH selling pressure are divided, and the overall selling pressure is low.
Compared with the slight increase in global purchasing power last week, the purchasing power of stablecoins decreased slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at 62,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability of not falling below 54,000~57,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability of not falling below 68,000~71,000 in the short term is 53%.
Market setting the tone:
The overall market sentiment is neutral, and the short-term holder cost has reached around 55K. The probability of an extreme downward trend this week is still low. BTC and ETH may continue to go out of the divergence trend. From the perspective of derivatives, there will be a small amount of short squeeze or sustained market fluctuations.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be careful to view and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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