It has been going sideways and falling back and forth for a long time. What is going on?

Let’s do a simple analysis.

1) Uncertainty caused by the risk of US debt default,

2) Stop the game in June

Because these two are the main sentiments of the market. So let's analyze the possibility of these two issues

What is a U.S. debt default?

U.S. Treasury bonds are U.S. Treasury bonds. They are regarded as safe assets by the world and are the cornerstone of the global financial system. Many countries, institutions and individuals hold a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds.

If the United States defaults, there will be a direct financial crisis, liquidity will be drained, and all risky assets will be cut in half, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum!

So will the US debt default?

The following five situations may lead to a US Treasury default:

1) Debt Ceiling:

If Congress fails to raise this limit in time, this could lead to a default. A meeting is currently underway to discuss this matter, and I think it's not a big problem!

2) Government Shutdown:

In fact, even if the government shuts down, the U.S. Treasury can usually find ways to pay its debts, such as temporarily suspending certain investments or cashing in certain assets to maintain the government's cash flow and avoid default. Not a big problem!

3) Policy Errors:

Wrong policy decisions, such as excessive fiscal austerity or excessive monetary tightening, could lead to a U.S. recession, which would affect the government's ability to repay its debts. Not a big deal!

4) External shocks:

A massive natural disaster, a solar storm knocking out communications, a war, or a pandemic could wreak havoc on the U.S. economy and affect the government's ability to repay its debts.

5) Political Conflict:

Severe political conflict, such as civil war or sudden change of government, could render the U.S. government incapable of functioning normally, thus affecting debt payments. Not considered!

So the conclusion is that the possibility of a US debt default is very low, but the big market funds will be worried, so it is understandable that they will not move for the time being! Let's wait for the results in June!

So the second question is, will it stop in June?

According to the current market situation, there is a high probability that there will be no interest rate hike in June, which is the so-called interest rate pause.

However, it is necessary to refer to the non-farm data on June 2 and the CPI data on June 13.

My personal prediction is that it will stop.

So the two-way conclusion is:

The US debt will not default, which is good news.

Pause, good news.

For those who hold counterfeit goods, if there is a rebound in June-August, ship out!

Waiting for the hype event in the second half of the year

1) Risk of a hard landing of the US economy

2) Banking crisis

3) Risks of commercial real estate crashes, etc.

4) After the U.S. debt ceiling is raised, the additional issuance of U.S. debt will drain the market’s liquidity.

5) Interest rate cuts and halving

We will analyze the subsequent hype bit by bit later!

BOSS's point of view:

As written in the previous article, the market fluctuated downward and the last 31,000 was the high point of this round of bulls!

This view has changed in this article!

Investing is risky! This article only represents personal opinions and is not intended as financial advice!

24800 is the bottom of this round of downward shock.

BTC: The bottom of 24800 may not be reached, break 30,000, and look at 3.40,000!

ETH: The bottom of 1560 may not be reached, break 2000, and look at 2300!

If you do not agree with the views in this article, you have the final say and your opinion shall prevail!