According to historical charts, Bitcoin (BTC) could be preparing for a correction before the halving, despite Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high of around $73,700 on March 13th.
Is a Bitcoin correction imminent before the halving?
Signs of overheating are growing and Bitcoin's price could fall significantly ahead of the April halving. That equates to a 20% correction before the 2020 halving and a 38% correction before the 2016 halving, says the analyst, who goes by the pseudonym Rekt Capital.
The analyst expects the possibility of a recovery that could last up to 77 days, although the drawdown may be smaller than in previous cycles. Specifically:
“This year, Bitcoin has experienced a -18% pullback in January and a -14% pullback in early March. So it's entirely possible that the pre-halving pullback, if it occurs, is more likely to be on the shallower side than the deeper side. "
BTC/USD, weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital, X BTC price is worse than previous halvings
But what if history doesn't repeat itself this time? For example, the current cycle is already different as the BTC price set a new all-time high for the first time even before the halving occurred.
Second, according to historical data provided by Ecoinometrics in an X post on March 12, Bitcoin has not yet caught up to its growth trajectory from previous halving cycles:
“If Bitcoin were to follow a growth trajectory similar to the previous two cycles, we would expect one BTC to be worth between $100,000 and $300,000 per coin.”
Chart Halvinga Bitcoin. Source: Ecoinmetrics, X.
Thus, there is still room for improvement in the current price action, especially since the previous record high price may now serve as a launching pad for further gains before the halving.
Related: Bitcoin at $71K, Same as $20K in Last Cycle - BTC Price Analysis
According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has successfully retested the old all-time high of $69,200, which is now acting as a new support line, he wrote in an X post on March 12.
The price of bitcoin increased to $150 thousand. later Halvinga: Bernstein
Looking ahead, asset management firm Bernstein expects Bitcoin to rise to around $150,000 after the halving and by mid-2025, according to a note to clients on Monday. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chugani and Mahika Sapra now expect the BTC price to “break out” after the halving.
Increased demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has made them "more confident" in their price target, which they first published last year.
“We estimate $10 billion in inflows in 2024 and another $60 billion in 2025. In the last 40 trading days since the ETF launched on January 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have already exceeded $9.5 billion.”
“At this rate of growth, Bitcoin ETFs will exceed our 2025 inflow estimates for 166 trading days through the end of 2024,” the analysts added.
Related: Grayscale Files for the 'Mini' Spot Bitcoin ETF
Bernstein also advised clients to invest in Bitcoin miners as the recent decline in performance "is likely the last window before the halving."
However, Bernstein's price target is modest compared to expectations for Cathie Wood's investment in Ark, which has "pushed" its long-term Bitcoin price target to over $1 million.
