In just two days, the price of Bitcoin soared from 52,000 USDT to a maximum of 64,000 USDT. At the same time, the market value of Bitcoin reached 1.225 trillion US dollars. Will the market value of Bitcoin eventually reach 3.3 trillion US dollars? This article is original by Chuan Shuo Crypto. Please do not reprint the article content and publish it on Binance Square. Violators will be held accountable.
1. Bitcoin’s new turning point $BTC
"How high can Bitcoin go after the U.S. approves the ETF?" What is the impact of the Bitcoin ETF on the trend of Bitcoin?
In general, ETF has fundamentally changed the status of Bitcoin and is the third historical turning point for Bitcoin.
1. The first turning point of Bitcoin was when pizza man Laszlo used 10,000 Bitcoins to buy two pizzas, completing the thrilling leap of Bitcoin from air to commodity.
2. The second time was when Mentougou Exchange traded Bitcoin for the first time, completing a historic leap for Bitcoin as a trading medium. Bitcoin rose 100 times from its opening price in just 4 months.
3. Why is ETF the third turning point in history? The approval of Bitcoin ETF means that Bitcoin has been recognized by the mainstream capital system. Although it is a belated positive, and although I don’t like Gary Gensler’s procrastination, the SEC led by him and he himself will be recorded in the history of Bitcoin development forever because they push mankind towards the right financial path. This is a major long-term positive that affects the fate of mankind.
The positive factors are divided into long-term positive factors and short-term positive factors. The impact of long-term positive factors is calculated on an annual basis. It is not one year, nor two years, which has fundamentally changed the development trajectory of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has left the small pond, jumped over the dragon gate, and returned to the sea.
Below is the answer to the question, "How high can Bitcoin go after the U.S. approves the ETF?"
“Can you explain it more clearly, when was the lowest point, how much was it, when was the highest point, how long is a cycle, and what is the basis for the prediction of Bitcoin’s market value of 3.3 trillion?”
2. ETF plays a decisive role in the rise of Bitcoin$BTC
The size of ETF funds played a decisive role in the rise of Bitcoin. For quite a long time, Bitcoin had to depend on the mood of Wall Street.
Bitcoin has a halving cycle every four years. Each halving reduces the supply by half. Under the condition that demand remains unchanged, it will inevitably rise. The lowest point of this cycle is $16,000, which occurred in December 2022.
Someone has concluded that Bitcoin has a 10-fold increase in cycle effect. Based on this, the high point is $160,000, and the difference between the high and low points of the previous cycle is 8 times. Bitcoin generally has a bull market of more than one year and a bear market of more than two years. It starts to rise a few months before the halving, reaches a high point six months to eight months after the halving, and then enters a bear market. These experiences are invalid in front of ETFs.
I wrote an article in the past predicting that without ETFs, Bitcoin would not even reach 69,000. The demand is different now. The characteristics of ETFs are similar to bonds. The market funds are about 200 trillion. If 1% of the funds enter Bitcoin, it will explode. The mainstream market funds have only entered for 40 days. The trend is still unclear and even gods cannot predict it.
3. All Bitcoin operation experience is unreliable
ETFs fundamentally change the technical trend of Bitcoin. All existing experience needs to be revised. There will definitely be a big rise, but not necessarily a big fall, because your opponent is the big sharks on Wall Street. The big fish eat the small fish is the unchanging logic of the capital market. When you can't see the future trend clearly, holding the currency is the best strategy.
If we have to speculate, we must make assumptions. Based on the data of the first 40 days, assuming that the inflow continues, the average daily inflow of ETFs is 800 million, and the annual inflow is 292 billion, while the inflow of stablecoins is 29.2 billion. The sum of the two is 321.2 billion. There are less than three months before the halving. If the Bitcoin hoarding rate does not move for a year, it will reach 70%. That is, assuming that 30% of the Bitcoin hoarding rate is fully changed, 321.2 billion can leverage a market value of 1 trillion. The price of the coin at this time is more than 100,000 US dollars per coin, which is a conservative estimate.
In the last cycle, Bitcoin halved, but without the support of 10 times of funds in this round, it still rose 8 times. So this round of 10 times effect should appear, and will exceed, long-term positive decision, rise to you unbelievable. Will it continue to rise?
4. The reason why Bitcoin’s market value will rise to 3.3 trillion
Simply put, the market value of Bitcoin at $3.3 trillion is calculated based on the unit price of Bitcoin, which is $160,000, multiplied by 21 million Bitcoins. As mentioned earlier, ETFs are a long-term positive. After Bitcoin was hyped up in the past, it was bound to fall to digest the hyped-up bubble because subsequent funds could not keep up, and then slowly rise from the bottom.
This time, the influx of ETF funds in the first 40 days was 10 times that of USDT. A simple estimate is that the digestion capacity is 10 times greater. In particular, ETF is a long-term positive, which will change the original bull-bear time ratio of Bitcoin. The bull market has no top, and Bitcoin has no top. How long will this crazy bull market last? This is what we need to judge. How to judge? We still need to go back to the analysis of the main funds. Once Wall Street made a move, the original Bitcoin trading crocodiles became small shrimps. In their opinion, the main funds determine the time of the rising cycle, which will determine the top of Bitcoin.
The main capital believes that Bitcoin is a stored value asset. It is a reasonable estimate that Bitcoin can occupy the second place in the stored value asset. It is unthinkable that it can replace gold. When it reaches the second place, there will be disagreements on Wall Street, and then the top of Bitcoin's stage will appear. At this time, the market value of Bitcoin is about 3.3 trillion, which matches its position as the second largest stored value asset.
