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This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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Weekly Review
This week, from February 5 to February 12, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $48,592 and the lowest was close to $42,258, with a fluctuation range of about 15%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 42,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
39000–43000: about 2.62 million pieces;
34000~38000: about 1.22 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 38,000-41,000 in the short term is 90%;
The probability that it will not rise below 49,000-51,000 in the short term is 53%.
Important news
Economic News
The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States surged in January, and GDP in the fourth quarter of last year far exceeded expectations. Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4%
S&P 500 closes above 5,000, setting a new all-time high
Atlanta Fed President Bostic: The U.S. has made good progress in fighting inflation, but there is still a long way to go
The annualized growth rate of core CPI in the fourth quarter of the United States remained unchanged at 3.3% after revision
Report: Nvidia is setting up a new division to design chips specifically for cloud computing companies.
Report: OpenAI's revenue exceeded $2 billion last year and is expected to double by 2025.
JPMorgan: Delayed rate cuts provide an opportunity to earn high bond yields
Open AI's chief executive seeks investors, including the United Arab Emirates, for a project that could cost as much as $7 trillion.
Encrypted ecological news
The latest Ethereum developer consensus meeting: Dencun upgrade will be carried out on the mainnet on March 13
Merlin Chain opens staking, TVL exceeds $18.7 million within 1 hour
Eigenpie has opened LsETH deposits. Users deposit LsETH and receive mLsETH
Ben Edgington, former head of product at Consensys, joins OP Labs
Crypto startup Superform Labs completes $6.5 million financing, led by Polychain Capital
According to HODL15Capital, nine spot Bitcoin ETFs have purchased 216,309 Bitcoins (worth $10.3 billion) within 21 days of their launch, exceeding MicroStrategy's current total holdings.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Chip distribution chart of long-term and short-term participants
On-chain chip growth and destruction
Long-term participants’ positions
Large Amount Exchange Net Position
(The following figure shows the chip distribution of long-term and short-term participants)
Judging from the distribution of chips, it has already left the area that attracts much attention.
We have reached a vacuum state, which may not attract much attention in terms of consensus, and it is still difficult to have a resolute driving force.
(The following figure shows the growth and destruction of chips on the chain)
New forces continued to decline and the market's purchasing power came to a halt.
(The following figure shows the holdings of long-term participants)
From a structural perspective, long-term participants are still supporting the market and no hollowing out has occurred.
Generally, when the market reaches a stage of hollowness, the market's ability to withstand pressure begins to decline sharply and prices begin to collapse.
(The following figure shows the net position of large-volume exchanges)
The net position of block trades shows that the large-scale selling pressure in the market has begun to decline, and after the force that originally suppressed the market has weakened, the market has begun to seek balance upward.
It was intuitively caused, and once the suppression was released, it started to rise.
Mid-term exploration
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Total stablecoin circulation
Cumulative Trend Score
Accumulation trend of each group
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The positive sentiment of the network indicates that the current market has a slight rightward trend. Under this condition, the enthusiasm of the participants in the market may be mobilized, and the market will have a relatively strong performance.
(Figure below shows the total circulation of stablecoins)
The circulating supply of stablecoins has increased significantly overall, which provides sufficient purchasing power and price imagination space for the market.
The continuous increase in purchasing power has also formed a trend and has not stopped growing for the time being.
(Figure below: Accumulation trend score)
This model mainly observes the accumulation state within the field.
The accumulation trend is in the state of 0.8-0.9. On this basis, the accumulation force of the overall market is relatively strong.
At the same time, this accumulation is in the spot state, and the price support band may be relatively stable before the situation weakens.
(The following figure shows the accumulation trend of each group)
The leaders of this market trend are the giant whales, while the medium and small groups are generally in a state of selling.
The rise in the market may be caused by large-scale buying and selling resulting from differences, and it is obvious that the pulling force of the whale group is stronger.
From a cautious perspective, the group that needs risk control is also the big whale group.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the danger zone and the derivatives risk is relatively high.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The market performance is consistent with last week's expectations, with the risk factor going straight down to produce a short squeeze. However, from the perspective of liquidation volume and the current position of the risk factor, the probability of a large-scale short squeeze is low. This week, the market is expected to fluctuate or short squeeze again in a small range.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Put protection ratio level did not change much and was at the medium level. Option trading volume decreased significantly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives volumes were at low levels following the market short squeeze.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has not changed much in the short term, only increasing slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The current short-term holder cost is 40K. Combined with the chip chart, a large number of chips have accumulated around 40K~45K, forming a certain chip support belt. The market's rise this time did not create extreme enthusiasm, and we will continue to pay attention to the transfer of loss-making chips in the future.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a large amount of accumulated outflows, and the selling pressure is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
All the chips previously accumulated in the exchange have been outflowed. Currently, there is a large amount of outflow accumulation.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
The second cake is currently continuing to flow out in large quantities.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly compared to last week, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
This week, purchasing power in Asia and Europe rebounded significantly, while the loss of purchasing power in the Americas slowed down.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT exchange net positions saw a small inflow.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 45,000; there is a willingness to sell at 50,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 40,000, 42,000, and 45,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 49000, 50000, 51000, 52000 and 53000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 40,000, 42,000, and 45,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 49,000 and 50,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 43,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 49,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
As time goes by, it has been proven again that the United States has had a relatively soft landing.
Risk assets including gold and U.S. stocks are rising, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high.
The annual revision of the US CPI did not unexpectedly fall in line with expectations.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that Open ai's CEO Altman has raised the expected fundraising for AI chips and other fields to 7 trillion US dollars.
This means that combined with the funding and space for the existing AI industry, the potential is already over 10 trillion US dollars.
The mainstream trend of the future technology industry may see some reconstruction and changes.
And in some aspects, the future value may need to be re-estimated, or in other words, there is still room for improvement in some aspects.
On-chain long-term insights:
The current price level has escaped the close scrutiny of long-term and short-term traders, and the force of extreme upward and downward impulses may be reduced;
The number of new chips continues to decline, and the market purchasing power begins to decline;
Long-term players are still supporting the market and they are still holding positions;
The exchange's block trades show that the maximum amount of selling pressure has begun to decline, and the market's suppressive force has begun to decline, which is one of the factors that promote the market's rise;
Market setting:
Purchasing power is not strong at this stage, it’s just that the original selling pressure has begun to disappear significantly, which has promoted the easing of market pressure.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Online sentiment is in a trending state;
The circulating supply of stablecoins is still on an upward trend;
The overall presentation had a cumulative score of 0.8–0.9;
The whale group is affecting the market
Market setting:
Whales take the lead in risk control
The current market situation is driven by a large group of people, and this group is also the target of risk control.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the dangerous zone and the risk of derivatives is relatively high.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed a large amount of accumulated outflows, and the selling pressure was relatively low.
Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly compared to last week, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 45,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 50,000 price level.
The probability that it will not fall below 38,000-41,000 in the short term is 90%; the probability that it will not rise below 49,000-51,000 in the short term is 53%.
Market setting:
The current large amount of short squeeze has not caused a frenzy in market sentiment, and both activity and purchasing power have increased compared to last week. The risk of a large downward fluctuation in the market is expected to be extremely low this week, and the scope of continued short squeeze at the current price is limited.
All WTR members wish you a happy new year 2024!
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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