Historical data shows that there is usually a bull market for the Bitcoin price in April. What happened last April was as follows...
Bitcoin (BTC) price and April performance historically
Based on seasonal analysis and serial correlation, the BTC price was typically stronger in April than any other month of the year. There is no information as to why this phenomenon is occurring, but if the trend continues, Bitcoin may be on its way to starting a more significant uptrend.
The chart below shows BTC's April performance each year. The data starts with April 2011, when Bitcoin gained more than 343% in value.
The April rally in 2011 represents a total April return of 537.94%, or an average gain of 44.83% per month over the years. The 17% decline in 2022 was one of the rare bear periods.
In finance, performance is often repeated on an unusually specific schedule. For example, the phenomenon called the January Effect sees a sharp rise in the valuations of small-cap stocks and altcoins.
Strong March strengthens odds for a bullish April
Bitcoin has historically peaked in November or December. As seen in 2021, April can also host major bull runs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but history can often rhyme.
Bitcoin analysis: April may bring a 44% price increase
Interestingly, a 44% move in the price of BTC helped it rise above $40,000 for the first time in April last year. The cryptocurrency market fell 17% later this month, falling below descending support. The break below the support trend line resulted in a dramatic decline, rising another 46% in the following two months. BTC fell a full 58% from the April 2022 close to the current bottom set in November.
Since November, Bitcoin is up nearly 80%, and another 44% on top of that means BTC's value has doubled from its November bottom to the end of this month. But it will only be possible if BTC adds this average to the current price. It may be a productive indicator to look at the similarities between April 2023 and April 2019:
Monthly Bitcoin chart indicates ultra bullish momentum
A recent analysis by Finbold analyst Ana Nicenko presented an optimistic picture that Bitcoin could reach the $47,000 peak. Specifically, Bitcoin's monthly chart is extremely bullish, with the monthly relative strength index (RSI) over the last 14 periods trending upward as it recorded a reading of 50.45.