LAST WEEK RECAP:
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 353K in Jan, much better than the estimated 185K; the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, against the estimated 3.8%.
Federal Reserve holds interest rate at 5.25%-5.5% range, Powell said cut in March is not “base case”.
Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade goes live on Sepolia testnet.
FTX expects to pay crypto customers in full, and won’t restart due to a lack of buyers.
Binance Web3 wallet launched Bitcoin inscriptions marketplace.
Meta shares surged 20% due to soaring profit, better than the expected guidance and its first dividend.
Genesis reached $21M settlement with SEC over the Gemini Earn program.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY
No visible movement. #DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned, it's currently expected to continue building more price structures within this range. It did see some upward movement within the range. This can put some pressure on weaker assets.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX
VIX, as mentioned last week, is also getting stronger together with the dollar. For assets that are trading strong, it’s not a real problem but crypto has become fairly flat after the ETF launches. If DXY and #VIX pick up further, it’s a reasonable assumption for BTC and thus, the crypto market sees lower prices in the near term, too.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW
$BTC is still at the top of the macro range and keeps struggling at the 43-44k zone. The market is seeing a lot of alt derisking in anticipation of fresh BTC volatility coming in. For higher prices, the ideal scenario would be BTC flipping over 45k which would confirm further bullish upside. A dip into the mid-30s would also be a good opportunity.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW
$ETH $is still trading in total limbo without any clear sign of relative strength. The altcoin market is at the moment tied to the strength of ETH/BTC ratio everytime this picked up a little altcoins showed more strength. For now, ETH/USD is still bullish as long as the market consolidates above the 2k region.
ETH/BTC
ETH/BTC has still failed to find any sustained rally on larger time frames. At the moment, ETH/BTC is at a quite critical point; anymore downside and it basically retraces the entire ETF rotation trade, which likely leads to significantly lower prices for the ratio.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH
TOTAL3 just like ETH/USD is consolidating above resistance, which is usually good for a continuation move later on. This likely correlates with ETH if ETH can find relative strength over BTC.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH
ALT/BTC is also still failing to break over the resistance of the range. When it finally does break we’ll likely see a more market-wide altcoin rally in the top 100 coins.
SUMMARY
Market is in limbo with BTC struggling at the last real point of resistance before all-time highs. Meanwhile, ETH can’t find its footing against BTC leading to altcoins seeing a ton of derisking.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.
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