GBTC capital outflows have declined for 3 consecutive days! JP Morgan analyst: Bitcoin’s decline may stop
After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a Bitcoin spot ETF, which pushed the price of Bitcoin to nearly $49,000, BTC has fallen by more than 20% in just two weeks.
The main reason that the market generally blames is related to GBTC. Last week, JPMorgan Chase estimated that GBTC investors’ profit understanding will bring about US$3 billion in capital outflows (if management fees are not further reduced, there may be an additional US$5-10 billion. outflow), and now the total outflow of GBTC funds has reached as high as 4.786 billion US dollars as of yesterday.
Xiaomo: GBTC profit-taking is basically over, and BTC has limited room for further decline
Regarding whether GBTC will bring further selling pressure, JPMorgan analysts headed by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the latest report:
GBTC profit-taking has largely occurred, reflecting that much of the downward pressure on Bitcoin via this route should have subsided.
BitMEX Research data shows that after the highest single-day outflow of US$640 million on the 22nd, the outflow amount of GBTC has gradually decreased for three consecutive days, with an outflow of US$394 million yesterday (25th).
Loolonchain monitoring data pointed out that Grayscale transferred another 9,434 Bitcoins to Coinbase Prime yesterday (25th), a total of 103,134 Bitcoins have been reduced since the 11th, and it still holds 510,682 Bitcoins, worth approximately US$20.43 billion.
Currently, GBTC has seen 16.8% of its capital outflows. As for what will be the outflow rate of GBTC in the future? Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously predicted that GBTC’s outflow rate would be higher than 20%, but not exceed 35%.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas holds the same view as JPMorgan analysts. He recently wrote that GBTC trading volume has dropped again, which may be a sign of selling fatigue. Bloomberg data shows that GBTC trading volume was US$762 million on the 24th and US$762 million on the 25th, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline.
Unless fees are lowered, GBTC may continue to experience capital outflows
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts warned that if GBTC’s 1.5% fee is not reduced soon, the fund may continue to experience outflows and lose market share to competitors. Analysts said:
Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF has two competitors: Blackrock and Fidelity, which have attracted $1.9 billion and $1.8 billion in inflows respectively so far. Their fees are much lower at 0.25% (no exemptions).
