Three signals to buy $BTC at the bottom in 2024:

1. BTC falls into the 20,000-30,000 range

2. The Federal Reserve announces an interest rate cut or reduction + balance sheet expansion

3. BTC has experienced a drop of more than 20% in a single day or has been trading sideways for a long time after heavy volume decline.

explain:

1. The method of seeking a sword in a desperate situation: BTC had a 40% correction at the beginning of 2016; at the beginning of 2020, a black swan event occurred and a 63% correction occurred. According to these two historical correction ranges, in this round of correction, BTC started to fall from 49,000, and the correction range is probably 20,000-30,000.

Grayscale’s BTC holding cost is about 20,000, and the micro-strategy holding cost is about 32,000; therefore, this price range must be relatively low.

2. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates/expands its balance sheet, it means releasing money, which will inevitably increase. As for the reason for the Fed's release of funds, there is a high probability that there will be a systemic crisis similar to 2008 in the U.S. financial industry.

3. Historically, there are two ways for BTC to correct in a bear market. One is a black swan event, such as a single-day drop of 40% on March 12, 2020; the other is the one at the end of 2018, which followed a heavy volume decline and then traded sideways for a long time. Shock.

Do you think $BTC will fall below 30,000 in 2024?

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