The problem in the Red Sea directly increased the transportation costs of bulk commodities and crude oil, causing crude oil prices to rebound and inflationary forces to increase. This indirectly reduces the probability of the first interest rate cut in March by 8 percentage points.

It is precisely because of the increased uncertainty about interest rate cuts in March that the U.S. dollar has recently stopped its downward trend and started to rebound; U.S. bond yields have also begun to rebound; gold prices have also gone from an upward trend in December to shocks in January; and the RMB has also weakened again. . The long-short game in various markets is intensifying.

After the launch of the pie ETF in the currency circle, there will be no big benefits to speculate in the short term. The trend market in the past three months has ended. The rhythm here is not easy to grasp, and smooth market conditions still need to wait.