According to Blockworks, the November FOMC meeting begins today, and committee members are expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. CME Group data shows that the market expects this decision to be 99.2%.
Analysts said this morning's election results had little impact on this month's decision, but a possible Republican victory and its market impact made the December outcome uncertain. The probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in December is 67%.
Trump's victory could affect the Fed's leadership and mission. His planned tax cuts and tax increases could increase inflation and the federal deficit. In addition, Trump could appoint a new Fed chair in May 2026.