According to Cointelegraph, former President Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 20 percentage points on Polymarket, raising concerns about manipulation. Tarek Mansour, founder of Kalshi prediction market, believes that these results are accurate and not manipulated.

Mansour said media claims that big whales are manipulating the odds are false. The median bet on Harris was $85, while Trump's was $58.

He also noted that more people were betting on Trump on the Kalshi platform, with the 20-point lead on Polymarket roughly matching the number of bets on Kalshi.

Mansour stressed that Kalshi is a US-only prediction market, refuting the claim that current prediction market odds are subject to foreign manipulation. He believes that prediction markets are the new source of truth, without bias.

The value and utility of prediction markets has been hotly debated by industry executives and political commentators. Billionaire Elon Musk has argued that they are more accurate than polls, but critics have pointed out that Polymarket is not available to users in the United States, raising questions about the validity of the results.

Harris led Trump on Polymarket for much of August and September, but Trump’s odds increased significantly in the first half of October.