According to Cointelegraph, prediction market Kalshi has certified more than a dozen event contracts related to US political outcomes since winning a court case in September. These contracts are the first binary options in the US that allow traders to bet on election outcomes.

As of October 16, Kalshi’s flagship market, “Who will win the presidential election?” has accumulated $14 million in trading volume since its launch on October 7. Still, Kalshi lags far behind decentralized prediction market Polymarket, which has accumulated nearly $2 billion in bets related to the U.S. presidential election.

Kalshi sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in November 2023 and won in court rulings in September and October. The CFTC argues such markets threaten election integrity, but analysts say they often reflect public sentiment more accurately than polls.

As of October 16, Kalshi predicted that Republican candidate Donald Trump had a 55% chance of winning, while Democratic opponent Kamala Harris had a 45% chance. Polymarket's forecast was more bullish on Trump, giving him a 58% chance of winning, while Harris had less than 41%.