According to Jinshi Data, for Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, which boldly bet on a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data released on Friday will be their biggest test.

Ahead of the release of key nonfarm payrolls data, options measuring the dollar's performance against major trading partners hit their highest level since March 2023. Risk reversals showed widespread bearish sentiment on the dollar.

Since the release of weaker-than-expected July nonfarm payrolls data on August 2, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase have been predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in both September and November and by 25 basis points in December.

Interest rate swaps show that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its Sept. 17-18 meeting is about 35%, but traders and economists believe that a 25 basis point cut is most likely.