According to Jinshi Data, Guotai Junan said that the downward trend of the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds is certain, and risk aversion is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the context of anti-globalization, which supports the price of gold. In the medium and long term, gold pricing is mainly affected by the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds and risk aversion. At present, the main marginal pricing factor of gold prices is risk aversion. If the "preventive interest rate cut" fails to prevent the US economic recession and turns into a "recessionary interest rate cut", gold will be greatly boosted in two aspects: rising risk aversion and falling real interest rates. If the US economy achieves a soft landing, the real interest rate will also decline moderately, and the start of the US interest rate cut cycle will still have a certain boosting effect on gold prices. Against the background of the spread of anti-globalization and changes in the global order, the frequency of geopolitical conflicts is high, and risk aversion is easy to rise but difficult to fall, which continues to support the performance of gold.