● CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin chain cycle indicators return to bull market levels
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, said that most of the previous cycle indicators on the Bitcoin chain have now returned to the bull market level, and Bitcoin's current low lasted only about three days.
● Viewpoint: Bitcoin and US stocks will remain highly correlated until the election
According to PANews, GSR CEO Rich Rosenblum said in an interview with BlockWorks that Bitcoin and U.S. stocks will remain highly correlated until the election, and Bitcoin will not be able to become "digital gold" for the time being.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Matrixport released a weekly report on the X platform saying that the United States will release inflation data next week, and Bitcoin may recover. Bitcoin is currently in an oversold state, which is often accompanied by a rebound in history. If inflation falls below 3%, the market may respond positively. Risk assets are still greatly affected by macroeconomic factors, especially concerns about economic growth and the job market. Trading volume and liquidity are expected to decline in August, which may lead to lower returns. Monday's 18% plunge confirmed expectations of weak markets. Circle stablecoin funds outflowed last week, and funds inflow this week may be a sign of bottom fishing. The relative strength index (RSI) is below 30%, which may provide buying opportunities, similar to the situation in June 2024. In the Bitcoin bull market, although consolidation may occur, it is rare for the RSI to be below 30%.
According to Jinshi Data, Trump will be interviewed by Musk next Monday. The US CPI data for July and the US retail sales data, known as "horror data", will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, and investors need to pay close attention.
According to ChainCatcher, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) withdrew its original application for spot Bitcoin ETF options and resubmitted a more comprehensive version. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seifat said that there will definitely be some changes to Bitcoin ETF options. The new document is a 44-page document that replaces the original 15-page application. The updated document includes more detailed information, especially about position limits and concerns about market manipulation. This indicates that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may have provided feedback.
● SEC subpoenas at least three crypto VCs to investigate violations of federal securities laws
According to BlockBeats, on August 9, DL News quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has subpoenaed at least three crypto venture capital firms this year.
Sources say at least two other crypto VCs have received essentially the same document requests. The documents reportedly ask whether cryptocurrency venture capital firms have contracts requiring investors to enter into any token transactions. The SEC’s investigation into crypto VCs suggests that the agency is now investigating whether violations of federal securities laws have occurred in crypto VCs.
In July of this year, BlockTower Capital executive Paul said in a podcast that the SEC's investigation was due to its suspicion that crypto VCs may have acted as marketers of tokens.
● Economists predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September
According to Odaily Planet Daily, the vast majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. This is different from the expectations of some large banks on Wall Street. Nearly four-fifths of survey participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its meeting on September 17-18. Most of the remaining economists expect the rate cut to be larger. The median forecast of economists shows that there is only a 10% chance that the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates before the scheduled meeting. Economists also predict that the Federal Reserve will choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at meetings in September, November and December this year and in the first quarter of 2025.
