According to Odaily Planet Daily, Industrial Securities released a review of the US July non-farm payrolls. The team believes that the conditions for interest rate cuts are met, and the fermentation of downward risks in the job market has raised market expectations for interest rate cuts. The market has upgraded from trading economic cooling to trading recession, so be wary of overdraft trading. After the data was released, stocks fell and bonds rose. The expected probability of a single 50 basis point interest rate cut in September exceeded 70%. The market expected that the total interest rate cut range for the three meetings this year would be between 100-125bp, and major asset classes showed recession trading characteristics. The current amount of data is not enough to determine whether the economy will really fall into recession. The July CPI, August non-farm payrolls, and August CPI will further confirm whether the recession risk has escalated and whether the preventive interest rate cut can be successful.