According to Jinshi Data, global rating agency Moody's expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as early as the July 30-31 meeting. Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president of Moody's Ratings, said that the CPI data confirmed our view that the higher-than-expected inflation data in the first quarter was a one-off.

The rapid cooling of the labor market suggests that the impact of tight monetary policy is increasing. If the FOMC decides to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, the labor market may weaken further, increasing the likelihood of a sharp 50 basis point rate cut in September.

The agency predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50-75 basis points this year and by another 100-125 basis points by 2025.