According to 10x Research: Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant drop, falling below the $60,000 mark and heading towards $50,000. This decline marks the first time in 10 months that Bitcoin has crossed its 200-day moving average (MA), a critical support line. The cryptocurrency's price decline is attributed to ongoing seller interest and market structure changes.
Key Points:
1. Market Conditions and Price Decline:
- Recent Drop: Bitcoin dipped more than 2% on July 4, reaching new local lows of $57,885 on Bitstamp.
- 200-Day MA: The 200-day moving average, a critical support level, was crossed for the first time since October 2023, sitting at $58,400 at the time of writing.
2. Spot Selling and Liquidations:
- Spot Selling: Steady selling from spot markets has created challenging conditions for Bitcoin bulls.
- Long Liquidations: Data from CoinGlass shows nearly $60 million in 24-hour Bitcoin long liquidations.
3. Bearish Market Analysis:
- Bearish Narrative: Market structure analysis and trading signals have supported a bearish narrative for almost a month, with buy flows drying up and sell flows accelerating.
- Breaking Key Levels: Bitcoin is breaking significant technical and psychological levels at $60,000, a key level for Bitcoin miners and Bitcoin Spot ETF buyers.
4. Long Bitcoin Positions and Re-Entry Levels:
- Long Positions: Many traders remain long on Bitcoin, while a correction towards $50,000/$55,000 could offer better re-entry levels.
- Risk Management: Proper risk management is vital to prevent losses during this market correction.
5. Ethereum Concerns and Market Dynamics:
- Ethereum Support: Ethereum has also faced challenges, breaking key support levels and experiencing significant price declines.
- Market Dynamics: The market has seen increased sell flow and crypto-to-fiat offramps, contributing to the price declines.
6. Seasonal Trends and Miner Liquidations:
- Seasonal Trends: Poor Q3 seasonals and miner liquidations are expected to impact Bitcoin prices negatively.
- Miner Liquidations: Miners will likely liquidate more BTC inventory as prices approach their $60,000 breakeven price.
7. Double Top Concerns and ETF Offloads:
- Double Top: Concerns about a double top formation could lead to further price declines.
- ETF Offloads: Bitcoin ETFs and OGs have offloaded significant amounts of Bitcoin, contributing to the market's liquidity challenges.
8. Open Interest and Liquidations:
- Open Interest: Open interest has remained relatively firm despite sharp price drops, indicating potential for further liquidations.
- Liquidations: Many long positions are still trapped, which could lead to additional liquidations as prices fall.
9. Stock-to-Flow Model Critique:
- Model Critique: The stock-to-flow model has faced criticism, with projections not being met in previous cycles.
Bitcoin's recent decline below the $60,000 mark and the crossing of its 200-day moving average highlight the ongoing challenges in the cryptocurrency market. Steady spot selling and significant sell-side pressure have created difficult conditions for Bitcoin bulls. As the market navigates these dynamics, proper risk management and strategic re-entry levels will be crucial for traders. Additionally, exploring new income strategies can help traders surpass their lost dividend income and secure their financial future.