According to Jinshi, last night, against the backdrop of weak GDP data, market participants increased their expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, with FOMC-related swaps now pricing in a cumulative rate cut of about 37 basis points in 2024, slightly lower than the approximately 33 basis points before the GDP data was released. What will drive market movements today is the PCE inflation indicator for April, which is the most concerned by the Fed. The market consensus expects that both the headline and core PCE year-on-year and month-on-month data will be the same as last month. It is worth noting that the core service industry PCE, excluding housing, may see a significant (but temporary) decline due to falling airfares. With signs of cooling in the US labor market, the PCE data may be weak, although the degree of weakness is unlikely to significantly appease the Fed. If the indicator does show weakness, policymakers may welcome the good news, but are expected to stick to the position of maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period of time.