According to BlockBeats, market maker GSR analyst Brian Rudick has significantly lowered the predicted probability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Ethereum ETF in May 2024. In a report on Wednesday, Rudick stated that the likelihood has dropped to 20%, compared to the 75% probability predicted by GSR in January.
The analyst explained that the SEC has faced political pressure to not approve more digital asset ETFs. Additionally, the SEC's investigation into whether Ethereum is considered a security could significantly reduce the chances of approval. Regulators may seek to avoid turning the potential approval of an Ethereum spot ETF into 'another major event.'
Regarding future expectations, the analyst believes that any approval process for a spot Ethereum ETF may take longer and could be affected by litigation events. Rudick now predicts that the most likely timeframe for Ethereum ETF spot approval is between 2025 and 2026.