According to Jinshi, data from German economic research agency IMK shows that the probability of Germany falling into recession in the next three months has risen in recent weeks from an already high level. IMK's indicator shows that the probability of a recession in the next three months from February to April has risen from 56.8% in January to 61.7% now. The increase was driven by the country's continued slump in the manufacturing industry after the latest December production data fell again. However, IMK economist Thomas Theobald said that although there is no conclusive economic data showing growth so far, consumption should improve in 2024 with falling inflation and expected interest rate cuts.