The weekend market has been in a range for two days. From the data, the liquidity is pitifully low and the turnover rate is also at the bear market level, which means that without the support of the Americans, it is difficult to increase the trading volume on weekends, so our real opportunities often occur on weekdays. This shows that most retail investors have no desire to trade, which also means that most people are optimistic about the price trend after Trump takes office.
At present, the market trend still needs the support of emotions. The biggest source of this emotion is Trump's power transfer. Trump will take office as the US president on January 20, 14 days away. The market is expecting Trump to fulfill his promises after taking office, so I still maintain my previous view and am optimistic about the market in the first quarter of this year. If Trump starts to fulfill his promises as soon as he takes office, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum may rise again. It is worth noting that Michael Saylor (CEO of MicroStrategy) has released a Bitcoin tracker for the ninth consecutive week.
This may require buying Bitcoin again.
In terms of macro data, we need to pay attention to the ADP employment change on Wednesday night at 21:15, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes at 3:00 AM on Thursday, and finally the non-farm payroll data at 21:30 on Friday night.
Tonight's impact from U.S. stocks will be more important than before, as the U.S. Congress will confirm Trump's election victory tonight. Therefore, at the latest by tomorrow, we will definitely receive favorable news from Congress blessing Trump's ascension, while the cryptocurrency market will also enter a period of accelerated sentiment. After all, Trump himself said in December that he hoped Bitcoin would reach 150,000 when he took office. Even if we discount that, reaching 120,000 before January 20 shouldn't be a problem, right?
Which projects benefited the most after Trump’s market opened? First of all, it must be the Presidential Selection, which includes BTC, ETH, AAVE, LINK, ENA, and ONDO. Among them, ETH is the most held by Trump's new project WLFI. It is expected that Ethereum will dominate the rising trend at some point tonight. The last four projects will see a higher percentage increase than Bitcoin and Ethereum due to their market capitalization. Looking at Ethereum, there is a small resistance level around 3675, which has been tested several times and is likely to break through soon; the main focus is still on whether it can break through 3820 with volume.
Currently, the rise of Ethereum and altcoins still looks healthy, it's just a bit sluggish.
The overall market share of Bitcoin is weakening, but there has been a slight rebound in the past two days. When Bitcoin's BTCD accelerates downwards, it will be the time for Ethereum and altcoins to accelerate upwards.
MSTR's K-line chart shows that it has completed a round of adjustments, and there was a significant rebound last Friday. It is highly likely to continue rising tonight, leading to a surge in crypto.
Whether it's Ethereum or altcoins, the past weekend was lukewarm, and it has been flat for two consecutive days. A surge in volume is needed to extend the upward trend. If the ETF data released tomorrow shows inflows, I estimate that it will happen soon.
Can data influence whether the altcoin market cycle can break new highs?
As for whether altcoins can hit new highs, insufficient liquidity is an excuse for the decline but not the real reason for it. The true reason for the decline is the 'expectation of a drop', while the reason for the rise is also the 'expectation of a rise'. In 2021, the market capitalization of USDT was only half of what it is now, but it still supported the altcoin bull market. This current round is not surprising; as long as there is 'expectation', even if altcoins can't rise 100 times, achieving 50%-100% above the 2021 peak is not a problem.
There are also factors related to Trump's market. The Trump factor is the main reason for BTC's skyrocketing since November, so the topic of Trump is a very grand topic, and it's difficult to explain the pros and cons in just a few words. After confirming the overall direction, when selecting coins, one can focus on Trump-related coins and the altcoins held by Trump.
At this moment, we are at the first rebound after a washout period of about two weeks. Some see an opportunity to escape, while others look at the start of the altcoin season. Currently, apart from market data, it will largely depend on the FOMC meeting on January 28-29 and various macroeconomic data released throughout January.
These data will lead the market to form expectations for the first interest rate cuts in January/March/May. If the data is better (here 'better' means favorable to us), then the probability of a rate cut in March will be higher and the expected number of rate cuts for the year will increase. (Currently, a rate cut in January still seems to be a low-probability event, so the main competition is March vs. May.)
In March, there will also be a dot plot - indicating that March will provide the expected number of interest rate cuts for the year. If January's data is favorable and extremely dovish statements are made in January, then expectations for a rate cut in March will rise, and the bull market is likely to continue.
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