Bitcoin's weekend performance was decent, with no further decline. The market chose to slowly rise again, and it's gradually returning to 100,000. Many bloggers have been saying that what we are seeing now is just a rebound, not a reversal.
Their understanding of 'reversal' is a one-sided rise, stabilizing at 100,000 and continuously pushing up without any decline, which I believe is a narrow or even incorrect understanding. Some people often predict that if Bitcoin can pull back to 84,000, it would be great for building positions. This kind of prediction can easily lead to missing opportunities in the short term and may induce the bears to hold their positions until they see 84,000. If it rises back above 100,000 or even reaches new highs, those who shorted at lower levels will panic.
I believe that each time BTC pulls back to around 90,000 and holds, there is no need to keep talking about bearish views down to 80,000 or 70,000. BTC has pulled back to 90,000 countless times without breaking down, then quickly rebounds to 96,000/97,000, stabilizing at the central point of 95,000. A breakthrough of 97,200-97,700 would indicate a reversal because breaking through here will quickly lead to 98,200-98,800. Once the pressure at 98,200 is digested, it will push towards 100,000 and beyond.
Many fans are asking how Bitcoin will perform this week. I will analyze it from the aspects of USDT+USDC supply, Bitcoin ETF inflows, Bitcoin premium index, Bitcoin trading volume, and macroeconomic data.
(1) USDT+USDC Supply
Since January 2, the supply of USDT+USDC in the crypto market has increased by 1.7 billion tokens. In the past 24 hours, the supply of USDT+USDC increased by 240 million tokens, but the trend of improving liquidity is very clear.
(2) Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Outflows
Bitcoin ETF buying pressure is strongly recovering, with net inflows for the four indicative Bitcoin ETFs: FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and BTC, being $108 million and $650 million in the last two trading days respectively.
(3) Bitcoin Premium Index
US buying pressure has also recovered, with the Bitcoin discount on Coinbase nearly disappearing. Due to optimistic expectations of Trump's upcoming inauguration, positive factors have recently dominated the crypto market, and the probability of BTC continuing to rise in the short term is quite high.
(4) Bitcoin Trading Volume
Since December 31, the trading volume of BTC has been relatively low, indicating that current buying pressure is not strong enough. Therefore, there is a high probability of continued short-term increases, but the likelihood of directly and effectively breaking through previous highs is low.
(5) Macroeconomic Data
This week has a lot of macroeconomic data, which may lead to fluctuations. I suggest treating all of it as a pullback to buy, only focusing on the entry and exit points. From Wednesday to Friday, be quick to switch positions; if there is a sharp drop early Thursday, a strong rebound is inevitable on Friday night.
There are two weeks until Trump takes office. Today Congress certified Trump's victory, and on January 20th, Trump will officially take office. This period is positive for expectations, and after January 20th, once the good news lands, it is basically time to sell on rallies.
Altcoins will still be short-term speculation targets based on Trump concepts or derivative Trump concept coins. Trump concept coins continue to soar, with TREMP, MAGA, and FIGHT showing particularly clear trends, basically controlling an increase of 50% to 100% from the 2nd to now. Rapidly expanding the bottom range indicates potential for a tenfold increase in the next two weeks. To speculate, one must learn to leverage short-term momentum and inertia, and be bold!
Constituent Sector: RSR, ZRX, DYDX, HNS
Trump Sector: AAVE, ONDO, LINK
Grayscale Sector: LTC, BCH, ZEN
Payment Sector: XRP, XLM, ADA, AGLD
Musk Sector: DOGE, PNUT
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