Bitcoin (BTC) oscillated between $97,000 and $99,000 over the recently concluded weekend, failing to break through $99,000 on three attempts and currently reported at $98,159, with a 24-hour increase of 0.09%.

However, we know that weekends typically have lower market volatility. As European and American investors return to normal trading days, as long as Bitcoin does not fall below the previous low of $97,200 from last night, there is a possibility of challenging the $100,000 level again in the short term.

Ethereum holds firm at $3,600

On the other hand, Ethereum (ETH) has had a similar trend to Bitcoin in the past two days, but seems to be a bit stronger. As of the deadline, it is reported at $3,617, still oscillating within the consolidation range.

The overall liquidation data across the network is stable.

According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours was $136 million, with long positions liquidated at $89.62 million and short positions at $46.79 million, affecting more than 68,000 people. The liquidation data is not particularly severe.

Looking ahead, 10x Research pointed out in a recently released analysis report that we expect a positive start this year, followed by a slight pullback before the CPI data release on January 15, and then a breakout above $100,000 before Trump's inauguration. However, the market may experience another pullback before the FOMC meeting on January 29. (The following chart shows 10x Research's expected BTC trend.)

Are altcoins struggling to rise?

At the same time, the report also mentioned that from January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin's overall market capitalization surged from 50% to 60%, bringing significant resistance to altcoin performance.

Although the dominance indicator briefly plummeted to 53% within three weeks (sparking hopes for an altcoin season), it quickly rebounded to nearly 58% and then consolidated around 55%. This consolidation highlights Bitcoin's enduring dominance as the main driving force in the cryptocurrency market while also signaling potential challenges for altcoins—unless the Bitcoin dominance indicator declines again.

Bitfinex analysts also hold the view that Bitcoin will rise during January's volatility, stating yesterday that they expect Bitcoin to climb to $105,000 in January.

We expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound market trend as investors seek to deploy capital across a variety of asset classes. It is anticipated that by the end of January, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000.

President-elect Trump will be inaugurated on the 20th, which could become an important catalyst for the crypto market's rise. There are expectations for the new U.S. government, including the introduction of more crypto-friendly regulations and improvements to U.S. economic policies. However, Bitfinex analysts believe that Trump's inauguration may not immediately trigger a rise in the crypto market.

We expect the new president's term to bring more clarity to cryptocurrency policies, but we do not believe the inauguration will be a significant event for price increases. Instead, it will be a prelude to paving a less obstructive path for cryptocurrencies in the U.S.

Market focus this week

1/6 (Monday)

  • Eurozone: Germany's December consumer price index (CPI) compared to the same month last year, previous value -0.2%

  • United States: December services PMI, forecast 58.5, previous value 56.1

1/7 (Tuesday)

  • Eurozone: December consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate, previous value 2.2%

  • United States: December ISM non-manufacturing PMI, previous value 52.1

  • United States: November JOLTS job openings, previous value 7.744M

1/8 (Wednesday)

  • United States: December non-farm employment change, previous value 146K

1/9 (Thursday)

  • United States: National Day, market closed

  • United States: FOMC meeting minutes

  • United States: Initial jobless claims

1/10 (Friday)

  • United States: December average hourly wage (compared to the same month last year), previous value 0.4%

  • United States: December non-farm employment change, previous value 227K