According to AICoin market chart data, analysis of Bitcoin's trend on January 6. Recently, the market has experienced a strong rebound, and the competition between bulls and bears has intensified, with price movements entering a critical area. From the analysis of long-term and short-term candlestick patterns, the overall market still maintains a volatile upward trend, but short-term pullback signs have appeared, and the current situation poses challenges for both bulls and bears.
Long-term trend analysis
Trend review: Since December 26, after forming a high point at 99963.70, the price has shown a clear downward trend, reaching a low of 91530.45. Subsequently, the market oscillated at low levels and gradually moved upwards, forming a preliminary V-shaped reversal pattern, rebounding to the current level near 98090.45.
Key formation:
Head and shoulders bottom prototype: From December 26 to January 3, the price trend may form a head and shoulders bottom prototype, with 91530.45 as the bottom.
Volatile consolidation: The current price is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the high point has not yet broken the previous high of 99963.70.
Support and resistance:
Long-term support level: 91530.45, as the recent low point, is an important long-term support level.
Long-term resistance level: 99963.70 is the previous high point, which requires close attention to the possibility of a breakthrough.
Short-term trend analysis
Trend review: The chart shows that the price has shown an overall volatile upward trend since early January, with the highest point reaching 98976.91. The current price has pulled back to around 98069.80, indicating that the bulls have encountered some resistance near the previous high.
Key formation:
Ascending triangle breakout: Previous trends showed that the price formed an ascending triangle pattern, briefly peaking at 98976.91 after the breakout.
Pullback confirmation: The current price is undergoing a pullback after the breakout, and attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize above 97500.
Support and resistance:
Short-term support level: The range of 97500 to 98000 is currently an important support area. If it stabilizes, there is a high probability of further upward movement in the market.
Short-term resistance level: 98976.91 is the recent high point. If this position is broken, there is hope to continue challenging 99500 or even the 100000 mark.
Technical indicator analysis:
MACD: The MACD histogram is gradually lengthening, and the DIF line crosses above the DEA line, indicating that bullish strength is increasing in the short term.
RSI: The RSI value is around 60, not in the overbought or oversold area, but close to the overbought zone, requiring attention to potential pullbacks.
EMA: The current price is above EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120, and EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA120, indicating that the short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages are all in a bullish arrangement, with a positive trend.
Combined analysis of long-term and short-term
Long-term trend: The long-term trend remains within a volatile upward channel, but the upward momentum is gradually weakening. The long-term important support level is at 91530.45, and the current price is still above this support, indicating that the overall market is still biased towards bullish.
Short-term trend: In the short term, the price has encountered resistance at the important resistance level of 98976.91 after recent rebounds, and there are signs of a pullback confirmation. Currently seeking support in the 97500-98000 range is crucial for whether the bulls can continue.
Common signals:
Volatility range: Both long-term and short-term analysis show that the market exhibits strong volatility characteristics. The long-term range is 91500-100000, and the short-term range is 97500-98976.
Momentum change: The pullback behavior after a short-term rebound is relatively healthy. If the support is effective, the market may continue to challenge the long-term resistance area of 99500-100000.
Market forecast
Upward scenario (high probability, 60%):
Logic: Long-term bullish trend remains unbroken, and if the short-term stabilizes at the support level with increasing volume, the price may break upwards again.
Target level: Short-term target: After breaking 98976.91, reach the psychological level of 99500, or even hit 100000. Long-term target: After breaking, the upward space opens up, with hopes to challenge 102000.
Volatility scenario (medium probability, 30%):
Logic: If the short-term rebound momentum is insufficient, the market may oscillate within the range of 97500-98976, waiting for a direction to choose.
Target level: Upper limit: 98976-99500. Lower limit: 96500-97500.
Downward scenario (low probability, 10%):
Logic: If the price breaks below the 97500 support, bullish confidence may be undermined, triggering more sell-offs.
Target level: Short-term support: 96500. Long-term support: 94500-91500.
Operational advice
Conservative investors: Wait for the price to break above 98976.91, confirm the short-term upward trend, then take a light position to go long, targeting 99500-100000. Set a stop loss at 97500 to avoid the risk of a pullback.
Aggressive investors: Currently trying to establish long positions in the 97500-98000 range, waiting for a short-term rebound, targeting 98976.91. If it breaks below 97500, quickly stop loss and observe the support at 96500.
Risk control: The market is still in a volatile pattern, and it is crucial to avoid chasing highs and selling lows. Carefully observe the volume-price relationship; if the volume decreases during a pullback, it indicates strong support; conversely, operations should be cautious.
Comprehensive summary
The market is currently in a short-term pullback phase within a long-term volatile upward trend. Key support at 97500 and resistance at 98976.91 are crucial for the future market direction. It is recommended that investors adopt flexible strategies, patiently wait for a clear direction, and strictly manage risk.
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