1. Most institutions' optimistic predictions for Bitcoin are primarily based on the assumption that it will become part of the U.S. national reserve. If Bitcoin can be included in the U.S. national reserve and pension portfolios like gold, then the implementation of this policy could bring an incremental funding of at least $90 to $130 billion for Bitcoin.
2. Trump's push for Bitcoin to become a national reserve is no easy task. Currently, the most likely method is through signing an executive order directing the U.S. Treasury to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to directly purchase Bitcoin. Although this move bypasses congressional approval, it may still face challenges from congressional oversight.
3. The persistent high interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds and government spending cuts could be the most uncertain 'black swan' factor in 2025.
4. The positive effects of Trump's new crypto policies have not been fully absorbed by the market, but these factors have brought more trading opportunities. For example, trading opportunities in Bitcoin swing trading and asset tokenization, AI, DeFi, and other niche areas. Overall, while Bitcoin's increase may struggle to exceed 60%, a rise of 30%-40% (from $122,000 to $130,000) is still worth looking forward to.
