Author: defioasis
Editor: Colin Wu
2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after DeFi Summer, with narrative-based investment opportunities emerging endlessly on-chain. According to the author’s observations, as the concept that everything can be a Meme becomes increasingly ingrained and Pump Fun's rapid asset issuance occupies a mainstream position, Memes can start from 0, and (without launching on top CEXs) the market cap ceiling for on-chain space is approximately 1 billion dollars, indicating that there is already enough profit space for ordinary users on-chain; top CEXs have instead become the last link for on-chain investment exits. Due to increasing conflicts with the community, new assets launched on top CEXs often perform poorly; meanwhile, older coins that have already launched on top CEXs mostly struggle, lacking team motivation or unable to keep up with market changes, remaining in a state of waiting for unlocks.
This article is mainly based on predictions about on-chain trading and investment, focusing on segmented tracks on-chain, and is only the author's superficial prediction, not to be taken as any investment advice, but for consideration.
1. The DEX/CEX monthly volume ratio will exceed 20% for the first time.
According to The Block data, DEX trading volume surpassed 320 billion dollars in December 2024, setting a record for the highest monthly volume, with a year-on-year growth of over 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio in December 2024 reached 11.64%, up from 9.55% in December 2023, and the monthly trading volume ratio reached a maximum of 13.86%. With the continuous optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools dominated by CEX, this may accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading; the heated Meme track and wealth effect are among the important factors driving users' migration from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market cap of AI Agents/AI Meme will exceed the peak period of NFTs, with at least one AI Agents token's market cap exceeding 10 billion dollars.
The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market for the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging. From the initial chatbots like Truth Terminal (GOAT) that opened the Pandora's box of AI Agents, to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it creating the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models, all of this has happened in just a few months.
Currently, there are at least several frameworks in development and operation on the market, including ai16z — Eliza, Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro — Zerepy, and Dolion Framework, particularly ai16z — Eliza and Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework have formed a relatively strong ecological moat, with various sub-coins of AI Agents rapidly being introduced to the market.
According to CoinGecko data, the total market cap of AI Agents-related tokens currently reaches 12 billion dollars, with Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL acting as a trading pair token similar to SOL on the Solana network, driving the ecosystem's prosperity and nurturing the VIRTUAL parent coin, making it the highest market cap AI Agents-related token at 3.5 billion.
3. It is expected that 3–5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun will emerge.
Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad on the Solana network for quickly deploying tokens at extremely low costs, launching countless Memecoins daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.
Furthermore, the Memecoin track is gradually growing, and everything can become a Meme; the demand for segmentation is becoming stronger, evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu, which focuses on AI Agents launches, and Pump Science, which focuses on DeSci. AI Agents have become a ten billion track, and DeSci is also emerging with Binance's emphasis on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this is based on the demand for decentralized issuance and rapid asset issuance under different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into more segmented tracks in the future.
4. At least 5 native tokens from the Base ecosystem will be launched on Binance spot.
As a bellwether, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any native spot from the Base ecosystem. From the perspective of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base will be more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals series and the Farcaster series, with the market cap of the Virtuals ecosystem approaching 5 billion dollars, leading the Crypto x AI Agents space. The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on the listing of top exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is launched on Binance.
As a public chain under the US compliant exchange Coinbase, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open the fiat channel from Base — USDC to bank accounts. With the formal establishment of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for Crypto are implemented, Coinbase and Base may be the exchanges and networks that benefit the most. Furthermore, with Base's head Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team in October and leading Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network in Coinbase's strategic vision should further increase.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities with a market value exceeding 1 billion.
Hyperliquid has significantly increased community engagement and user interest through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and the wealth effect. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed 2 billion USDC, making it comparable to the 15th ranked exchange; the platform token HYPE's total market cap once exceeded 10 billion, with an FDV of over 30 billion.
From the development path of CEX, especially relatively young CEXs, most started with excellent performance and liquidity from contracts, but the real brand moat comes from the wealth effect brought by relatively exclusive spot trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards have brought possibilities for the introduction of exclusive assets, a capability that previous on-chain exchanges attempting to move from contract to spot trading lacked. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at issuance. In the context of difficulties and high costs associated with listing on top CEXs, starting through auctions of spot positions on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Known projects that have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not formally launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki — Anime (ANIME), among others.
Currently, the majority of the market cap and trading volume on Hyperliquid is concentrated in HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding a market cap of 100 million. With a higher market cap for HYPE, more funds are needed to pump. Collaborating with certain outstanding exclusive projects to create the wealth effect of exclusive assets is clearly more cost-effective, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increase in trading volume and reputation of Hyperliquid.
