China's economic challenges are growing more severe, signaling a possible impending recession. The 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 1.60% for the first time ever, reflecting investor concern and deepening economic uncertainty. While U.S. bond yields are rising, Chinaโs are plummeting, creating a stark gap of 296 basis points. This means U.S. bonds are now offering nearly 3% higher returns than their Chinese counterparts, a clear indication of investor caution towards Chinaโs financial stability.
The country is grappling with deflation, which has a far more damaging impact than inflation, as it leads to shrinking profits, stagnating wages, and slowed growth. Coupled with this, the real estate sector has collapsed, wiping out a staggering $18 trillion in wealth since 2021. Home sales have dropped by over 50% in three years, a slump that outpaces even the 2008 financial crisis in the U.S. The private sector debt in China has soared beyond 200% of GDP, surpassing the levels seen during the 2008 financial meltdown, highlighting the mounting financial pressures.
Despite Chinaโs efforts to stabilize the economy through stimulus measures, including cutting reserve requirements and slashing mortgage rates, the response has been insufficient. With a projected budget deficit of 4% of GDP in 2025, the government is forced to break its self-imposed cap to maintain economic stability. At the same time, China faces external challenges as former President Trump threatens to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially crippling its trade-dependent economy.
As a hedge against uncertainty, China has ramped up its gold purchases, signaling a lack of confidence in other recovery strategies. While a portion of its population has moved into the middle class, over half of the country still faces economic insecurity. The global implications are also far-reaching, as markets worldwide brace for the ripple effects of China's financial turmoil. With skepticism surrounding Chinaโs $411 billion special treasury bond issuance in 2025, the path to recovery remains unclear.