The national reserve fails, can Bitcoin break $150,000?

In 2024, Bitcoin rose by 135%, becoming the world's best asset, and it has reached the top 8 times in the past decade. Many institutions predict that the lower limit of Bitcoin's target in 2025 will be $150,000.

Institutions are optimistic because Bitcoin is expected to increase its share in the investment portfolio, provided that Trump includes it in the national reserve. The US gold reserves are worth about $700 billion, and the theoretical reserve scale of Bitcoin can reach $70 billion, with $50 billion of purchase space. US pension funds have a scale of gold allocation, but very little allocation to Bitcoin. If the country takes the lead in allocation, it will bring incremental growth.

The inclusion of Bitcoin in the national reserve will boost the market as much as the approval of ETFs. If it is achieved, it will easily break $150,000, but it will be difficult for Trump to achieve his goal. There are three ways to quickly reserve: the Federal Reserve's open market operations, Trump's executive order to let the Treasury Department purchase with the ESF, and the Treasury Department's special plan approved by Congress.

The possibility of the Fed's operation is low, and it rarely buys gold in the open market, and Chairman Powell clearly opposes it. Special plans require congressional approval and are difficult to implement. The executive order instructing the Treasury to use the ESF to purchase is relatively feasible, but it faces supervision and risks. The Fed's attitude reflects Wall Street's position. Bitcoin may need a sovereign currency crisis to gain mainstream currency status, and its probability of becoming a US national reserve has decreased.

In 2025, the global capital market is prone to black swans. Inflation and tariffs have led to lower expectations for interest rate cuts, higher US bond yields, and squeezed out the liquidity of risky assets; under the Fed's balance sheet reduction, if fiscal policy is adjusted, the market will lose momentum.

Trump's new crypto policy has not been fully digested, bringing trading opportunities. It is expected that Bitcoin will increase by 30%-40% in 2025, with a target range of US$122,000-130,000. It is advisable to reduce positions above US$122,000. #BTC $BTC #BTC走势分析