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It is not easy for Trump to make Bitcoin a national reserve.

There are three main ways for Trump to quickly establish a national reserve of Bitcoin:

First, the Federal Reserve purchases Bitcoin through open market operations and includes it in its balance sheet. This move only requires the approval of the FOMC, without the approval of Congress.

Second, after taking office, Trump signed an executive order to instruct the U.S. Treasury to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to directly purchase Bitcoin.

Third, the Treasury Department sets up a special government Bitcoin investment plan and clarifies the source of funds (such as issuing government bonds or fiscal transfers), which will then be implemented after approval by Congress.

From the current situation, the possibility of Bitcoin being included in the national reserve through the Federal Reserve is very small. First, the Federal Reserve's open market operations mainly involve government bonds and government-backed securities, and there is almost no record of buying gold, let alone buying highly volatile assets such as Bitcoin.

Second, on December 20, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it clear at a press conference after the monetary policy meeting that the Federal Reserve has no intention of participating in any government plan to hoard Bitcoin. He emphasized that such issues should be the responsibility of Congress and that the Federal Reserve has not sought to amend existing laws to allow the holding of Bitcoin. Powell's statement was interpreted by the outside world as a veiled opposition to the Bitcoin national reserve plan.

The establishment of a special fiscal investment plan is considered to be a more long-term legally supported solution. However, the use of fiscal revenue involves budget allocation and the issuance of bonds involves government financing, both of which require congressional approval. This makes the implementation of the fiscal plan long and full of uncertainty.

Overall, the second method - Trump instructs the Treasury Department to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase Bitcoin through an executive order - is the most feasible option within the scope of the US President's authority. However, even if this approach is theoretically feasible, it still faces multiple challenges, especially congressional supervision and political risks.

To some extent, the Fed's attitude reflects the position of Wall Street. Therefore, after Powell's speech, PolyMarket's trading pricing shows that the probability of Bitcoin becoming a US national reserve has dropped from 36% on December 20, 2024 to 24% on January 3, 2025.