Bitcoin may fall back to $80,000-90,000 in the short term
Thiel believes that as 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin prices may see a correction to a low of between $80,000 and $90,000. This correction is not a sign of market pessimism, but a healthy adjustment in the bull market. Subsequently, Bitcoin will usher in a 108% surge in the coming months to reach the target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Potential catalysts for Bitcoin’s surge
Thiel pointed out several core factors that could drive Bitcoin to new highs:
The establishment of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin
The United States may announce the establishment of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin: If the US government or other countries announce that Bitcoin will be included in their strategic reserves, this will bring huge market demand and confidence support for Bitcoin.
He also pointed out that the supply of Bitcoin is limited: there are only 21 million in total, of which about 4 million cannot be circulated due to loss of private keys or other reasons, and the 1 million Bitcoins stored in Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet are also considered "permanently frozen." This means that the Bitcoin circulating in the market may be far less than people expect.
Pension funds and institutional needs
Thiel emphasized that if global pension funds allocate 1%-2% of their assets to Bitcoin, it would bring astronomical capital inflows.
At the same time, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has further lowered the threshold for investing in Bitcoin. He mentioned that the assets managed by Bitcoin ETFs in just 12 months have surpassed the level accumulated by gold ETFs in 20 years.
Supply and demand imbalance
Thiel described the supply and demand relationship of Bitcoin in detail: the number of Bitcoins in circulation is limited, while the demand from institutional and individual investors is rising rapidly. When the supply is insufficient, a surge in prices is almost inevitable.
Is the $200,000 goal for 2025 reasonable?
Historical verification:
Bitcoin prices usually see their strongest gains in the year after a halving. The 2024 halving could trigger a new wave of market enthusiasm, with 2025 coinciding with the peak of this cycle.Supply and demand logic:
With institutional demand increasing and supply limited, Thiel’s $200,000 goal isn’t out of the blue.Policy uncertainty:
The only potential obstacle may come from cryptocurrency regulatory policies around the world. If the policy environment deteriorates, this may affect the speed of institutional adoption.
Macro bull market and strong logical support
Fred Thiel's prediction has injected strong optimism into the Bitcoin market. His views not only focus on short-term market fluctuations, but also depict a "perfect storm" that Bitcoin may usher in based on supply and demand, institutional adoption and global policies.
What do you think about the $200,000 goal? Will it adjust your market strategy? Welcome to discuss!
