VanEck’s Head of Research: Solana ETF Listing in the US in 2025 Is More Than 77%
Matthew Siegel described the 77% chance that the SOL US ETF will list in 2025 as “undervalued.”
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Matthew Siegel, head of research at VanEck, said the number of ETFs in the US this year is even higher than the optimistic expectations of the popular betting market.
On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket said the odds of a Solana ETF listing in the United States in 2025 were around 77%. In a post on the X platform, Siegel called Polymarket’s predictions “undervalued.”
Siegel’s optimism reflects industry-wide expectations for more crypto ETF listings in the U.S. after President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory in November. The cryptocurrency-friendly Trump has said he wants to make America the “crypto capital of the world.”
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices dynamically fluctuating based on the expected outcome. Polymarket’s odds of being listed on an ETF had risen to nearly 84% as of Jan. 2, according to its website.
Source: Polymarket
Related: Betting Markets Predict Crypto Bull Run in 2025
Listing prospects are favourable.
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from U.S. regulators to list Solana’s spot ETFs.
In August, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged the asset managers' plans, citing concerns that SOL qualifies as a security rather than a commodity.
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The ETFs — the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs allowed to trade on U.S. exchanges — use an atypical “grantor trust” structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Success could depend on whether Solana’s proposed ETFs can fit into a similar structure, the issuers say.
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential victory as a green light for more than a half-dozen proposed exchange-traded funds awaiting regulatory approval to list in the United States.
In November, shortly after Trump won the US presidential race, Siegel reportedly said the chances of the US greenlighting the SOL ETF in 2025 were now “significantly high.”
Betting, Donald Trump, Solana, Ethereum ETF, Bitcoin ETF, ETF, US Election 2024
Source: Polymarket
Rising bettors
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, recording nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics.
During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polls, predicting not only a Trump victory but also a sweep of the US House of Representatives and Senate by his party.
Bettors are betting that 2025 will be a banner year for crypto markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new crypto ETFs listing in the US.
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