January 3, 2025
[I] Fundamental analysis
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) January 29, 2025, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 88.8% (pay attention to risks in late January and avoid risks in advance)
(2) Geopolitics: US media reported a secret meeting at the White House: If Iran accelerates the development of nuclear facilities, Biden may launch a strike before leaving office. (Today's gold price is 2659.8U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.25 (There is a risk of interest rate hike at the end of January, carry trading, early risk aversion)
(4) Non-agricultural data on January 10th (uncertainty risk)
[II] On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 74 (up 4 from yesterday), BTC funding rate 0.01%, Google search trend 29, option pain point 97000U
(2) ETF dynamics: BTC negative inflow of 2620 yesterday; ETH resumed negative inflow of 21,300 (pay attention to risks)
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74eh/s, handling fee 4.39 gas: 3 S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324U
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.17% (down 0.02% from yesterday), ETH market value accounts for 12.22%, and the altcoin rebounded and followed the rise;
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: daily line breakthrough, liquidity recovery after New Year's Day
(7) BTC support level: 95105-95529 BTC pressure level: 97930-98381
(8) USDC Treasury minted a total of 400 million USDC this morning. Subsequently, it transferred 300 million USDC to Coinbase.
(9) Trading philosophy: follow conscience, butcher the cow, follow the trend, and don't be tempted by the rise and fall of the coin price!
Today's trading technique: plan before you act. Calm down before trading, light incense, sit quietly for 15 minutes to think about the trading strategy, drink tea until your mind is clear, write the trading plan in your mind into a document, send it to CHATGPT, apply Bayesian theorem to analyze the probability of winning, and ask whether the altcoin to be built can outperform the cyclical growth of BTC!
【Three】
Main potential positives in the near future
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (effective on January 3, 16 billion U)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year's Day (institutions start new fiscal year layout)
3. MicroStrategy continues to resume coin purchases after the holiday (19,400 BTC purchased last week)
Main potential negatives in the near future
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-agricultural data (January 10, observe the market 3-5 days in advance)