The odds of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) launching in the U.S. this year are even higher than the optimistic predictions of popular prediction markets.
On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket said that the probability of a U.S. Solana ETF listing in 2025 is about 77%. In an article on Platform X, Sigel described Polymarket’s prediction as “underestimated.”
Sigel’s optimism reflects industry expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the November election will lead to more U.S. cryptocurrency ETFs. Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, has said he wants to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.”
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Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. As of Jan. 2, the odds of an ETF being listed had risen to about 84%, according to the Polymarket website.
Good listing prospects
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from U.S. regulators to list a cash Solana ETF.
In August, the SEC reportedly raised questions about the asset manager’s plans, citing concerns that SOLs were securities rather than commodities.
The BTC, ETFs are the only two cryptocurrency ETFs approved to trade on U.S. exchanges, and they use an atypical “grantor trust” structure, which is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Success may depend on whether the proposed Solana ETF can fit a similar structure, the issuer said.
Industry analysts believe that Trump’s presidential victory has given the green light to more than half a dozen proposed cryptocurrency ETFs awaiting regulatory approval for listing in the United States.
Last November, shortly after Trump won the U.S. presidential election, Sigel reportedly said the likelihood of the U.S. approving a SOL ETF in 2025 was now “extremely high.”
What the prediction platform thinks about the crypto market
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency prediction platform, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to Dune Analytics.
During the US election in November, the prediction platform was more accurate than traditional polls, predicting not only Trump’s victory but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Forecasters are betting that 2025 will be a banner year for the cryptocurrency market, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new cryptocurrency ETFs launching in the United States.