BTC
BTC started to rise today and broke through the price of 95,000 at the end of December. It is now close to the previous consolidation zone of 96,500-97,000. From the 4-hour BOLL, it is currently at the upper track of BOLL. Therefore, this price point is crucial for the subsequent market trend. If it breaks through 97,000, it may touch the 100,000 mark next. If it is blocked, it may continue to adjust for 3-4 days.
Judging from the trading volume, the current trading volume has not increased, so the market is still in a downturn. Therefore, I think we need to continue to maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude. In addition, the market may surge tomorrow, Friday, but the market generally has no momentum on weekends, so it may not be easy to break through here. Therefore, you need to be cautious when going long. You can go long with a small short-term position, with a stop loss of 94,500. Don’t consider shorting for the time being.
ETH
ETH and BTC have similar trends, but today ETH appears relatively weak, and the trading volume has not increased. While monitoring the market, we found that this increase was primarily driven by BTC. Therefore, we can refer to BTC for our operations: if the price stabilizes at 3550, we can initiate an upward trend. For a small position, we can take a short-term long position with a stop loss at 3350, while considering short positions temporarily.
Ordinary people need to lower their expectations in the context of AI.
I mentioned before that this bull market requires lowering profit expectations, but I didn't delve into it deeply. Today, I will analyze the logic behind this in detail.
The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant evolution from its early days to now. Even though the price increase of BTC in each bull market is declining, there are still many hundredfold coins emerging, such as MEME in this bull market. However, as I mentioned before, most people find it difficult to grasp MEME. The underlying logic is that the investment tools are becoming more popular, making it harder for ordinary people to make money.
The investment tools we are talking about here are AI.
In the past, quantitative trading, strategy trading, etc., were done by teams with technology and strength, because most people in the market still used traditional ordering methods, which was an advantage. Once this type of strategy trading becomes popular, naturally more people will trade in this way, and AI lowers the barrier to entry, allowing someone who doesn't understand programming to create a strategy trading model using simple prompts, continuously optimizing it to improve returns.
If a few people do this, the market's profit effect is still acceptable. However, once the majority of people do this, it becomes problematic, as the effectiveness of strategies will be significantly reduced. There may be instances of 'running ahead' among various AI strategy trading tools, and many AI tools centered on technical indicators might place orders at certain price levels, making it easier for counterparties to exploit these loopholes. If the key price level is breached, it may trigger a market stampede effect, thus impacting market operations and generating greater influence.
The most intuitive example is the decline in December. Historically, BTC's decline this time is not large, but it has had a significant impact on altcoins and mainstream coins like ETH. BTC fell by 10%, while some altcoins have already dropped by 50%, which was hard to imagine in the past. I believe this is due to many intelligent trading tools monitoring BTC's trends and affecting their own trading of altcoins.
From an intuitive perspective, it is becoming increasingly difficult for ordinary people to make money. When you buy BTC, its price fluctuations don’t seem significant enough for some people. However, if you buy altcoins, you must constantly monitor BTC, as any movement can cause massive market fluctuations, making some people's account balances like a roller coaster. This reflects the state of the market under the popularization of AI. Of course, this phenomenon is not limited to the cryptocurrency sector; traditional investment markets such as the stock market will also exhibit this behavior, though it is more pronounced in the cryptocurrency market.
So for ordinary people, one way to avoid risks is to join AI tools. If you really don’t know how to use tools, you can also use copy trading strategies, but this will exacerbate the phenomenon mentioned above. Another way is to lower your profit expectations. Only by lowering profit expectations can you secure profits early and avoid severe market fluctuations and asset drawdowns later.
