Although the Polymarket prediction platform launched four years ago, it is 2024 that truly attracts market attention. This decentralized prediction market has accumulated over $8 billion in trading volume this year, becoming a hot topic of discussion. Among them, the most notable prediction events include the U.S. presidential election and many other quirky topics. Here are the ten most representative trending predictions from Polymarket in 2024, organized by The Block.
Politics: 2024 Presidential Election Prediction Trading Exceeds $3 Billion
The 2024 U.S. presidential election has become Polymarket's largest trading market. The key figures in the election are Democratic Kamala Harris and Republican Trump, with the prediction market for this election alone attracting over $3 billion in trading volume. This fully demonstrates the appeal of political topics on prediction platforms.
Strange Events: Will Trump smoke marijuana on a podcast?
Polymarket users have also made predictions about seemingly absurd events, such as whether Trump will smoke marijuana on Joe Rogan's podcast. After Trump appeared on the show on October 26, the result showed he did not do so, and the trading volume for this prediction market approached $200,000.
Music and Memes: Will Kamala mention Brat?
Another prediction attracting over $67,000 in trading volume is whether Kamala will say the word Brat before August. The term comes from British musician Charli XCX's album and sparked a craze on social media. Although Charli mentioned Kamala IS brat on Twitter, Kamala herself has never referred to it.
The Truth About Satoshi Nakamoto: Will Musk be identified as the creator of Bitcoin?
HBO's documentary (Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery) premiered in October, promising to unveil the identity of Bitcoin's creator. Polymarket then launched relevant prediction markets, attracting over $44 million in trading volume. Although the documentary ultimately focused on early Bitcoin developer Peter Todd, it failed to provide specific evidence, resulting in the outcome being classified as 'Other/Multiple Candidates'.
Person of the Year: Can artificial intelligence become Time Magazine's Person of the Year?
In 2024, Polymarket users placed bets on whether artificial intelligence could be chosen as Time Magazine's Person of the Year, with total trading exceeding $570,000. However, AI did not win this honor; the Person of the Year for 2023 was Taylor Swift, and in 2024 it was awarded to Trump again.
Crime Prediction: Will the suspect's 'declaration' mention cryptocurrency?
In Maryland, USA, after the arrest of murder suspect Luigi Mangione, the 'declaration' he carried became the media focus. Polymarket users placed bets on whether the declaration would mention 'cryptocurrency' or 'Bitcoin', accumulating a trading volume of $270,000, but as of now, these terms have not appeared in the declaration.
Will Trump mention 'tampon'?
Trump's rhetoric during his campaign has also become a topic of user predictions. Regarding whether Trump will mention 'tampon' in speeches or interviews, multiple prediction markets attracted $138,000 in bets. Notably, during a campaign event in Pennsylvania, Trump indeed mentioned this term.
Number of Musk's tweets
Users are equally interested in the number of Musk's tweets. For example, one market predicted whether he would post more than 450 tweets in a week, attracting over $1.1 million in bets.
Is the Earth flat?
Although most people know the Earth is not flat, there are still relevant prediction markets on Polymarket, attracting over $1,200 in trading volume. The final result showed 'no', but the existence of such topics is amusing.
Will Trump collaborate with influencer Hawk tuah girl on a podcast?
Hawk tuah girl became an internet sensation for her humorous answers, and her podcast has featured several celebrities. However, Trump has not yet appeared on her show, and this market attracted over $43,000 in trading volume.
Do aliens exist?
The prediction market about whether the U.S. will confirm the existence of aliens in 2024 has become one of the hottest topics, accumulating a trading volume of $1.6 million. Although there is still no conclusion, this topic continues to attract attention.
Polymarket bets on anything, nothing is surprising.
From politics to entertainment, Polymarket's topics cover a wide range of fields. This not only reflects users' curiosity about future events but also demonstrates the influence of decentralized prediction markets in the internet age.
This article 'From Presidential Elections to Aliens: Polymarket's Top 10 Trending Topics for 2024' first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.