Master discusses hot topics:
The market is also calm due to the New Year and the U.S. stock market being closed these two days. As mentioned before, the market is still following the planned trajectory without any sudden fluctuations.
As the pricing power of Bitcoin is handed over to the United States, we retail investors in the crypto circle have gradually adapted to the rhythm of American holidays, living a more laid-back life during Christmas and New Year's.
Currently, Bitcoin is still oscillating within the current range, even though tonight is a workday and the U.S. stock market is also open. However, I personally feel that there won’t be any major moves; during this low liquidity period, we haven’t seen any sudden surges, and everyone should be able to get through this week smoothly.
As for next week, with more institutions and investors returning to work, market liquidity will gradually recover. At that time, as mentioned in yesterday's article, the market will start preparing for Trump's transition in two weeks.
Next week, more information may be released, so friends trading short-term and medium-long term need to pay extra attention. So far, Master’s view remains unchanged: it’s possible to go bearish, but don’t short easily. Because if a sudden piece of news comes out next week, it might change the entire market trend.
Regarding the data, trading volume remains low, but the turnover is still active. The recent turnover mainly involves those investors who are at a loss reducing their holdings, while those who have recently bottom-fished are trading frequently.
At the same time, the support is also changing. Master mentioned earlier that although it is a short-term chip, the support level may be adjusted down to 92K to 88K. If this situation continues next week, the support level may be further lowered, so let’s observe for a while and not make adjustments for now.
Let's talk about the recent data on Ethereum spot ETFs; the overall performance is still good. However, due to the outflow from Grayscale and the absence of further inflow from BlackRock over the past two days, it was ultimately the support from Fidelity's funds that prevented a net outflow situation.
Although the price of Ethereum often faces criticism and doubts, the buying sentiment has remained strong, mainly due to the lack of a breakout opportunity. This opportunity, besides the overall positive sentiment, may be focused on real assets or the staking of Ethereum spot ETFs.
Looking back at 2024, Ethereum's spot ETF has gone through many twists and turns. Although the approval of Bitcoin ETFs triggered a surge in Ethereum, the strengthening of regulations led to a dampened market sentiment, with the highest approval rate expected to be less than 20%.
It wasn’t until November that a turning point began to appear, with BlackRock and Fidelity becoming the main buyers, and Ethereum finally starting to see net inflows. As of the last day of 2024, the ETF holdings in the U.S. have increased by about 560,000 Ethereum.
The three ETFs in Hong Kong have also increased their holdings by 5,832 Ethereum, indicating optimism in the market about the future of Ethereum, especially after Trump's transition, with the capital favoring compliant cryptocurrencies gradually rising, making Ethereum's prospects even more promising. For now, everyone just needs to be patient and wait to see Bitcoin and Ethereum reach new ATHs again!
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 95800
Second resistance level: 95400
Support level reference:
First support level: 94600
Second support level: 94100
Today's suggestion:
Currently, Bitcoin has risen to 95K. If it consolidates between 94.8K and 95K in the short term, further rebounds can be expected. The high and low points of the previously formed bearish flag pattern have been confirmed and can be used as important support and resistance levels for reference.
Currently, the area around 95.4K is where the highs and lows of the previous bearish flag pattern overlap. This is an important resistance level that must be broken to continue rising. If the psychological support level of 95K is breached, it doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate shift to bearish thinking. Instead, we can look for ultra-short-term entry opportunities in the range of 94.5K to 94.6K. Meanwhile, we can pay attention to the movement of the 20-day moving average.
Currently, the 20-day, 60-day, and 120-day moving averages have formed a positive arrangement. During the adjustment phase, these three moving averages can be used as support levels for phased buying. (Aggressive entry - near the 20-day moving average) (Conservative entry - near the 60-day and 120-day moving averages)
1.2 Master’s segment on waves:
Long entry reference: light long near 94100. If it retraces near 93200, can go long directly. Target: 95000-95400-95800.
Short selling entry reference: light short in the range of 95800-96500. If it rebounds near 97500, can short directly. Target: 94600-94100.
