Author: Zolo, Deep Tide TechFlow
It seems that everyone is looking forward to 2025, market reasons, hot topics reasons. Project parties, retail investors, KOLs, VCs... everyone is preparing for a big push.
I am also part of it. But I have begun to be vigilant; when everyone wants to go all out, how can I avoid being 'swept along'?
Looking back at 2024, I hope that in 2025, what I encounter and create will be real and have positive value for the industry.
Real information: Information cocoons are everywhere; what we pursue is not more information but real information.
Do not blindly believe in a single channel.
This year, what made me deeply aware of this was the US election. If you only look at Polymarket, you will always feel that Trump is guaranteed to win, and the fluctuations in the middle will catch you off guard.
If you only look at 'certain American party media', you might still think Harris has a chance; but if you switch the information channel to Twitter, you'll find that Twitter is full of messages that Trump is going to win.
Information has no right or wrong, but all have narrowness.
So, when we evaluate a project’s popularity and reputation only through Twitter, we should also look at on-chain data, community discussions, interpersonal communications, etc.
Diversify your channels to receive more diverse signals.
Escape the biases of KOLs.
What impressed me most this year was the discussion about ai16z; I happened to follow it from the very beginning until now.
There are good and bad. For example, in the beginning, the founder's unfiltered comments made many people worry about their holdings, and KOLs of the level of Ansem, Him, etc., also publicly FUDed ai16z.
On the eliza/Eliza case sensitivity debate, different KOLs hold very different opinions.
Having different opinions is normal; criticizing a project is also normal, but if all opinions deviate from logic and become emotional and fixed, they are biased.
During this period, if you only look at those who are always bullish on ai16z, you will think the project's problems are insignificant; of course, you also need to endure the selling pressure during that time.
Similarly, during this period, if you only follow those KOLs who are still FUDing no matter how ai16z improves, the information you receive will always be negative, which will make you miss out on ten or even a hundred times the returns.
KOLs have no right or wrong; each KOL is just an information cocoon. Their quality varies, but since they are individuals, they definitely carry their own fixed perceptions and even some biases. When researching a project, do not ignore friends around you who have truly in-depth research on a project.
Beware of conspiracy groups; your gossip is all 'money-losing news'.
Many friends have shared on Twitter that over 80% of the 'gossip' they received resulted in losses.
I am also one of them. I am not sharing 'gossip' with malicious intent, but because everyone is a part of the play.
You do not know the authenticity of the message (will it be pulled);
Uncertain about the validity of the message (where to pull it to);
Uncertain how many people know this news (is the buying point low enough);
......
The probability of these messages being 'distorted' is too high.
So that these 'gossip' turn into 'money-losing news' by the time they reach you.
Real users: Reject false data prosperity; traffic is important, but don't become addicted to it.
The traffic in the industry has become more false; we need real influence.
Whether it is Twitter followers, website traffic, or AMA attendance, fake traffic is increasing, and many surrounding 'traffic-selling' services are thriving.
For my own work, I feel even deeper.
The influence of media, traffic is a very important judgment factor. Many people who are not familiar with the industry generally judge whether this media is worth cooperating with from the perspective of traffic through some third-party tools.
This has directly led to 'buying traffic' and attracting 'business' becoming a common phenomenon across all industries.
However, 'bought traffic' cannot bring 'real influence';
The 'business' attracted cannot bring them 'good results'.
In this cycle:
Platforms need to buy traffic to make themselves appear influential;
Project parties need appealing traffic to prove that what they are doing is effective;
Different platforms compete with each other, and the cost of buying traffic is gradually increasing;
As traffic increases, the surface effects improve, the industry enters a false prosperity, and only wealth is genuinely transferred to 'traffic service providers'.
I would call this phenomenon 'TrafficSick'. Once infected, it gets harder to escape.
How to judge real influence?
Try to communicate with real people, interact with different roles in the industry, ask them how they view a certain issue, if they have seen a certain content, and what their evaluations are.
This is also the reason I attended many activities last year. Only by truly interacting and communicating with different friends offline did I realize how everyone views us, what everyone is currently discussing, what the community atmosphere is like, and what kind of content users are truly interested in.
Real influence and real feedback are what can lead us into a positive cycle.
Don't be afraid of low traffic; it might be better to first build an emotional niche community.
In the past when doing advertising, I was deeply influenced by a viewpoint:
There must be some commonalities at the bottom of every person, so no matter what you do, as long as it is something that 'truly moves you' and 'you deeply recognize', there will definitely be someone at some end of the world who resonates with you.
Just like listening to music, 'niche music' is always just a relative concept, and it will always have a market.
So from a market perspective, the problems being solved are actually very clear:
1- Are you doing things that truly move and resonate with you?
2- Have you spread this matter widely enough?
For Web3, although our market is growing larger, the benefit is that our traffic is not very dispersed. We can count where users are, which social software they use, and what your competitors are.
A Loyal Member must be attracted by some 'extreme concepts, ideas, attitudes', etc. As long as you find them, they will come to you and start gathering, thus forming a community.
You don't need many people because these dozens of individuals may have a much better effect than tens of thousands. So, we should not worry about low traffic but rather whether what we are doing can truly attract people.
Real creation: When AI becomes a common creative tool for everyone, what kind of content will attract people?
This year, aside from the hype around AI Agents and other concepts, AI as a tool has significantly enhanced our productivity. However, a common comment is that this thing has a strong AI flavor.
Regardless of whether you have noticed it or not, you will gradually find that:
The content you see will become increasingly homogenized; content frameworks and reasoning logic will become more and more similar; the content cited in arguments will gradually converge; there will be more and more research-type content (because it is easier to produce low-quality articles).
I know that some content platforms have been using AI to produce content, expand their database, do SEO, and earn traffic money.
But users will definitely experience aesthetic fatigue.
So when AI is generally considered a creative tool, what kind of things will attract people? I think it comes down to two aspects:
1- We should value ideas.
Have your own thoughts on the produced content, break the inherent framework, and approach from different angles.
2- We should create new things.
People will always applaud things they have 'never seen' before. Creativity is illogical, random combinations, and also something 'unseen'.
We should place more emphasis on creating content rather than organizing content.
Real connections: Time is precious, don’t waste it casually.
A long-term and healthy relationship should be mutually beneficial, not a one-sided continuous exploitation.
Those who do not recognize the value of your labor will keep asking you for 'a favor';
People who are stingy towards others/the community are unlikely to be willing to share matching benefits for your contributions.
In 2025, when everyone seems to be gearing up for a big push, I do not want to be the one who 'only takes' and is unwilling to give.
This year my dog got seriously ill, and when I spent a lot of time taking care of her, I realized that I had only been seeking emotional value from her.
When I was meeting my own Maslow's emotional needs, I couldn't even meet her most basic need for timely meals.
This year, many people's time is very precious. Don’t be afraid to seek help, but always remember not to just take.
Mutually beneficial links are the only real and valid links.
Once the bow is drawn, there is no turning back. I think this should also be the attitude for doing things this year.
Place heavy bets on recognized matters, do not spread your energy too thin, and do not think that if you don't do well, there will be another opportunity.
The above can be regarded as my summary of 2024 and my expectations for 2025.
Finally, thank the partners who chose Deep Tide in 2024. I hope we can work hard together in 2025 and do some more interesting and creative things.
To those who see this, I wish you all can gain from the things you recognize in 2025. Happy New Year 🎉~