Wall Street in 2024 experienced historic glory, but by the end of the year, the scene took a sharp turn, and the market failed to achieve the expected 'Santa Claus rally.' Despite the S&P 500 index recording a 24.1% increase for the year and Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, investors did not enjoy a satisfying year-end celebration.
The Contrast of Glory and Lull: The Duality of Wall Street
Looking back on this year, the market capitalization of the S&P 500 surged by $10 trillion, marking the first time since 1998 that there have been two consecutive years of over 20% gains. The 'seven giants' of tech stocks shone brightly, with Nvidia rising by 171%, Apple soaring by 30%, and the AI boom injecting strong momentum into the market. However, this 'Tech Carnival' has masked the weakness in other sectors, especially in industrials and materials, which struggled amid global economic concerns.
The end of the year was disappointing. The S&P 500 index fell for five consecutive days, failing to continue the historically common 'Santa Claus rally.' Analyst Jeffrey Hirsch's 'January Barometer' reminds us that January's market performance will be key to predicting the trend for the entire year. Investors' current unease may cast a shadow over 2025.
Tech Carnival and Bitcoin Legend: The Duality of Winners
The technology industry is undoubtedly the biggest winner this year, but this 'carnival' also hides crises. Some skeptics warn that the current tech boom may repeat the tragedy of the 2000 internet bubble. Bitcoin, with a 119% increase, has become the most dazzling investment asset of 2024.
As Bitcoin first broke through $100,000, investors gradually turned their attention to the cryptocurrency market. However, with weak economic data and potential warnings of economic contraction, Bitcoin's prospects may also face challenges.
Politics, Interest Rate Cuts, and Market Prospects: The Unknowns of 2025
President Trump's re-election brought a brief wave of excitement to the market, with his tax cuts and deregulation measures driving bank stocks sharply higher. However, the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts at the end of 2024 fell short, combined with high inflation and slowing economic growth, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty for 2025.
Tang's Summary: The Glory is Gone, the Future is Unknown
Wall Street in 2024 is both the peak of glory and the prelude to risk. Will 2025 see the arrival of a new bull market, or the start of a market correction? Only time will tell.
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