In the short term, the cryptocurrency market remains sluggish. Market trading volume has decreased by about 64% compared to the historical peak price period of Bitcoin, with retail investor interest waning, suppressing market activity, and there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term. Referring to the past two Bitcoin cycles, the current 15% price retracement of Bitcoin is similar, and it will eventually rise again.

Yesterday, Bitcoin briefly broke through $96,000 but encountered resistance at the 50-day moving average. Currently, many people are bearish, and the multiple declines in the altcoin market have affected investor sentiment. After the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, the Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rates this month, with expectations for rate cuts decreasing, and the high interest rate environment continues to affect the market. Bitcoin has fallen below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, seemingly forming a death cross.

At the $94,000 price level, it broke through after more than six months of consolidation. The decrease in retail investor interest may imply opportunities, and large holders accumulating Bitcoin provide support, followed by a return of retail funds which will boost market rebound.

From the chip distribution chart, the support zone at $97,000 has been lost, with a large amount of chips changing hands in the $92,800 to $93,800 region, regarded as a potential support level. Glassnode tweets show that a large supply is concentrated between $88,000 and $100,000, with the deepest color around $98,000, where many people’s costs lie. Additionally, there is a significant blank area, as Bitcoin previously rose too quickly and lacked support, leading to severe fluctuations, which is also seen as a bottom exploration area.

The realization price for short-term holders, namely the $86,000 to $87,000 region, is being discussed, and analysts believe Bitcoin may test this area. During the bull market phase after the halving, Bitcoin usually does not fall below this level; the previous bull market also did not break below the average purchase price line of short-term holders. The 2017 bull market saw a 30% retracement, and this cost line has repeatedly supported price rebounds forming higher points, making this line worth discussing.

The activity of Bitcoin whales is interesting; in the 2017 bull market, the holdings showed a wave-like movement with multiple segment operations. The previous bull market until the top in the first half of 2021 did not break below the average purchase price line of short-term holders, and whales only fully reduced their holdings at the end. Currently, whale holdings are decreasing, resembling a short-term adjustment in coin prices.

Although there is uncertainty in January, looking at historical performance, February and the first quarter of each year, especially in the Ethereum market, have performed well.