At the beginning of 2024, hardly anyone believed Elon Musk would have a smooth year in 2024 when the electric vehicle market was bleak, while Tesla faced fierce competition from cheap Chinese cars. However, the CEO of Tesla once again proved to the world that they owe him an apology.
In September 2024, forecasts from Informa Connect Academy regarding Elon Musk likely becoming the world's first trillionaire by 2027 were met with ridicule by many experts. This forecast was based on Musk's average annual asset growth rate of 109.88%.
However, with the bleak electric vehicle market and a series of challenges that Tesla faces, many do not believe that Elon Musk will end 2024 on a positive note.
However, Elon Musk surprised the world once again after stories about electric cars, launching rockets into space, or implanting chips in humans.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Elon Musk's net worth reached a historic high of $500 billion on December 17, 2024, making him the individual with the largest wealth in history.
Although Tesla's CEO's net worth has decreased to around $458 billion, it is still nearly double that of the second-richest person, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, with $240 billion.
Even Fortune magazine has named Elon Musk the most powerful businessman in the world in 2024, ahead of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and Apple CEO Tim Cook.
So what has caused CEO Elon Musk to rise strongly and surprise all investors so much? The answer comes from the lifelong gamble for the 2024 U.S. presidential election named Donald Trump.
If Li Si (292-235 BC), the prime minister of the Qin state during the Warring States period, is recorded in history with the remark "Nothing profits more than trading with the king" when he elevated Qin Shi Huang to the throne and then unified China, then in America, there is Elon Musk.
Reverting back to mid-2024, Tesla's CEO seemed to receive only bad news as the electric vehicle market remained bleak.
In June 2024, Business Insider (BI) reported that Tesla's market share dropped from 59.8% in 2023 to 51.2% in the U.S. Although the company remains the dominant player in its home market, competitors are gradually capturing market share from Tesla's losses.
Hyundai rose by 34%, Ford also increased by 48%. And these numbers are still nothing compared to Rivian's 77% rise or Kia's 110%.
In the first half of the year, Tesla's sales in the U.S. dropped by 8%, while in Europe, sales fell by 13%.
Tesla's market share in the pure electric segment in Europe fell from 19.8% in the first half of last year to 17.2% in the first six months of this year. Tesla also recorded the second-largest reduction in Europe, just after Volkswagen.
The first reason for the decline that Tesla is facing is that growth cannot continue indefinitely, especially when the product range remains limited and outdated. The Model 3 was upgraded in 2023 but has been produced since 2017. The Model Y is also five years old, and the Model S has been around since the early 2010s.
Not to mention the rise of a flood of cheap electric vehicles from China and countless new players in the market.
However, everything changed 180 degrees when Tesla's stock unexpectedly surged 85% this year, pushing the total market capitalization of this electric car company above $1.4 trillion for the first time in history.
All of this is due to Elon Musk's lifelong gamble in betting on lobbying for Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
After Donald Trump won the election, a series of positive signals emerged for Elon Musk, changing the entire bleak situation from the beginning of 2024.
Morgan Stanley experts believe that Tesla's stock has strong growth prospects if the company expands beyond the electric vehicle sector and CEO Elon Musk continues to demonstrate his political influence.
Specifically, the analysis team at Morgan Stanley led by expert Adam Jonas predicts that Tesla's stock could rise to $500 per share, equivalent to a 50% increase compared to the session on November 12.
Morgan believes that 80% of Tesla's revenue comes from car sales and there is not much voice in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, renewable energy, robotics...
However, if Tesla can successfully implement its initiatives outside the electric vehicle sector and Elon Musk continues to maintain his political position, the situation will trend more positively.
"Tesla is a car company, but we also consider Tesla a collection of options," the analysts at Morgan stated.
Accordingly, some options may only wait for the distant future, while others can yield profits right now if Tesla chooses to implement them.
Morgan's report indicates that Tesla's energy sector, which was once of little interest to investors, is now growing strongly. Last year, Tesla's energy storage sector doubled in growth and is expected to continue increasing by 100% this year.
Experts even assess that it is highly likely that Tesla's energy business and energy storage will ultimately bring in greater value than selling electric cars.
Additionally, Morgan believes that the potential for autonomous electric vehicles is very large, which could help Tesla become a giant in the AI sector. Breakthroughs in automation, whether in electric vehicles or other forms, can integrate areas such as data, robotics, energy, infrastructure...
"We believe that Tesla has the potential to benefit from these sectors in the future," the analysis report from Morgan stated.
An important factor that makes Morgan value Tesla's potential is Elon Musk's unprecedented political influence.
Since the victory of presidential candidate Donald Trump, many investors are betting that Elon Musk and his companies will benefit.
